Gulf and Arabian Peninsula

This is only the latest flashpoint in a series of social media disinformation campaigns targeting Qatar.

On April 30, roughly a week after the Southern Transitional Council (STC) declared self-administration in Aden, a military confrontation broke out on the remote Yemeni island of Socotra between members of the STC and government forces. After just a few days, the situation was diffused when the island’s governor and the STC asked the Saudis to intervene. Although an agreement was reached quickly, it is likely to be fragile because the causes of the conflict are not entirely local. The island of Socotra is simply too important to multiple international players that are not willing to let it easily slip outside their sphere of influence.

The best way to describe the Trump administration’s decision to remove Patriot missile defense systems from Saudi Arabia is by highlighting its military irrelevance and political significance.

A few hours before Ramadan’s pre-fasting suhoor meal on April 25, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-sponsored regional secessionist movement, abruptly announced self-administration in Yemen’s South and a state of emergency.

Iran’s once promising reformist movement is in a death spiral. It is not because the idea of reform has lost its appeal.

Despite the Houthis’ rejection of the Saudi-led coalition’s two-week unilateral cease-fire, on April 24 the coalition’s Joint Forces Command announced an extension throughout the holy month of Ramadan.

The tensions between the two sides are unlikely to ease anytime soon.

The arrival of COVID-19 into Iraq and the resulting reduction in frontline deployed forces has widened the scope for ISIS operations.

If Kadhimi’s opponents succeed in blocking his confirmation, Iraq’s government will sink deeper into lethargy at a time of building crisis.

Vish Sakthivel, Hafsa Halawa, and Nour El-Achi join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on protest movements in Algeria, Iraq, and Lebanon. While each case is unique, all three movements are pushing for sweeping reforms of the corrupt political system, a change in the ruling elite, and improved state services.

Russia acts as a “key if quiet player” in southern Yemen, where its approach has been based on strategic neutrality. The goal has been to position Moscow as a greater stakeholder in mediation between the various Yemeni parties and outside players. Moscow has engaged the Southern Transitional Council, the UN-recognized Yemeni government led by President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, the Houthi rebels, as well as the three main regional powers intervening in Yemen — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran.

On April 25, the Southern Transitional Council declared self-administration and claimed authority over state institutions in the interim capital of Aden. The declaration demonstrates the region’s volatility, the limited reach of Yemen’s government, and the difficulty of imposing a solution to the problem of secessionism. It is also sparking political competition for Saudi patronage, and all of this poses a major diplomatic challenge for the Saudis.

The current state of affairs is a clear indication that the post-2003 system of apportionment of political posts on ethno-sectarian lines is no longer working.

Until a new round of UN talks begins, the cycle of violence on the ground is more than likely to continue.