Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.
Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of US weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.
Trump at war with Iran: Regime change, risk, and the hidden battle inside Tehran
The United States is now at war with Iran, or at least something dangerously close to it. The June 21 US strikes on key Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including the underground Fordow facility, marked a dramatic escalation. Yet Washington has carefully avoided calling this a full-scale war.
Caught in the crossfire: How the Iran-Israel war undermines Erdoğan’s agenda
Israel’s full-blown war against Iran threatens to upend regional dynamics and Turkey’s careful balancing act. The conflict presents both immediate threats and long-term strategic risks for Turkey.
US has an opening to force concessions from Iran in a potential deal
As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, warnings are growing louder that the war could result in hazardous and destructive radiological spillover to much of the region. But the posturing of various key actors in the Gulf and beyond has opened the door to a broader political settlement between the United States and Iran that could end the hostilities before such a dangerous scenario comes to pass.
As the war between Iran and Israel continued, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on June 17, framing the conflict as an “imposed war” and calling for national unity. But instead of using this moment to explore diplomatic off-ramps, particularly as President Donald Trump signaled the possible direct participation of the United States in the war on the side of Israel, Khamenei opted for posturing over negotiation and left the Iranian people even more fearful about the future.
A divided and distracted America edges towards another major Middle East war
As the world watches and waits to see whether the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates into a wider war and whether the United States gets more directly involved, Americans remain sharply divided and mostly distracted by events closer to home, for now.
President Donald Trump threatens Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But measured language and disciplined policy can help prevent escalation and protect American interests.
The Israel-Iran war: Scenarios for the days — and years — ahead
The evolving confrontation with Israel and the United States places the Islamic Republic of Iran at a critical inflection point. Tehran faces choices that range from limited negotiation and strategic restraint to escalation and eventual collapse. The following analysis explores the key scenarios that could unfold in the coming days, weeks, and years.
The Iran-Israel Conflict and the Future of the Iranian Regime
Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to examine the dramatic escalation between Israel and Iran following Israel’s targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, infrastructure, and senior IRGC officials. Vatanka discusses how the Iranian regime is responding, the risk of wider regional conflict, and whether the current campaign could mark the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic.
Where do we go from here? Day 5 of the Israel-Iran war
The past four days have clarified much about what Israel wants from this conflict, what Iran can and cannot do to fight back, and what decisions confront the American president over the next few days.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
