Iran

It is too early to tell whether the Wagner “uprising” is a one-off or foreshadows further cracks and the eventual collapse of Putin’s presidency, but the latter outcome would have lasting consequences in the MENA region.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Despite a substantial growth in trade between China and Iran, especially when it comes to Chinese exports to Iran and purchases of Iranian oil, the same cannot be said for Beijing’s investments in the Iranian economy, which have remained anemic, particularly in the critical energy sector.

The prevailing political spirit in the Gulf region is presently one of de-escalation. In the case of the UAE and Iran, a number of existing connections could help hasten the process of de-escalation and enable it to happen faster than anywhere else in the region.The outcome should be of interest not only to the UAE and Iran but also to the U.S. given the latter’s long-standing efforts to shape Iranian policies.

The “Axis of Resistance,” a network of non-state actors aligned with Iran, has emerged as a significant force in the Middle East in the last two decades. Despite the attention given to the more well-known members of the Axis of Resistance, the Azerbaijani group Hoseyniyun, which also operates within the network, remains relatively unknown.

In the 1950s-1970s, the bilateral relationship between Israel and pre-revolutionary Iran provided a road map for the process leading to a normalization in ties between the Jewish state and Arab countries in the 2020s.

The recent removal of IRGC commander Ali Shamkhani from his role as the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s top foreign and security policy body, the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), has triggered assessments about the potential implications for Tehran’s external calculus. But the changes at the SNSC should not be viewed in isolation. Rather, they must be understood and assessed in the context of a much deeper transformational project that began in 2019, personally spearheaded by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Late last month, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei opted to replace the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Shamkhani. The latter’s removal after 10 years spent in this key role has generated much speculation, misinformation, and outright disinformation.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Since Raisi’s election to the presidency, Iran is pursuing a two-tiered foreign policy: a vigorous and determined shift toward Russia and China on the one hand, while, on the other hand, making incremental concessions on its nuclear program to give the impression that another deal can be struck to replace the JCPOA. The former approach is being implemented with almost zero fanfare and the latter with extensive publicity.

The Middle East is undergoing a historic transformation with unprecedented opportunities to build new relationships, de-escalate tensions, and foster conditions for stronger integration. At the same time, the region remains on edge because of ongoing tensions in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and other conflict zones, a civil war that broke out recently in Sudan, along with the overarching challenges presented by fraught relations between Iran, Israel, and several Arab Gulf countries — with the longer-term implications of the still-fragile Iranian-Saudi rapprochement yet to be fully assessed.

Both Washington and Jerusalem welcome any reduction in regional tensions and prospects for a more stable, secure, and prosperous environment. However, there is a risk for U.S. and Israeli policy priorities, such as that regional de-escalation will reduce pressure on Tehran to negotiate on issues of concern, especially its nuclear weapons program.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.