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Trump’s South Caucasus Peacemaking Is His Most Successful, but It Remains Unfinished
  • Commentary
  • Trump’s South Caucasus Peacemaking Is His Most Successful, but It Remains Unfinished

    Of all the fronts in President Trump’s peacemaking agenda, the South Caucasus has delivered the most concrete results. The August 2025 Washington Declaration, signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan and witnessed by Trump, marked an important step toward peace in the region. The two sides initialed a peace agreement and advanced plans to unblock regional connectivity, including through the establishment of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhijevan exclave through southern Armenia. Implementation of TRIPP has since made notable progress, but construction has yet to start. A breakthrough on those two tracks would, in turn, unlock Armenia–Türkiye normalization, transforming a long-fractured region into an area of trade and interdependence.

    The Iran War Was Always About Regime Change
  • Commentary
  • The Iran War Was Always About Regime Change

    Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.

    Iran’s New War Cabinet Is Really an Old One
  • Analysis
  • Iran’s New War Cabinet Is Really an Old One

    Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.

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    مخاوف خامنئي على مستقبل رجال الدين الإيرانيين
  • Commentary
  • مخاوف خامنئي على مستقبل رجال الدين الإيرانيين

    هذا هو الجزء الأول من سلسلة مكونة من ثلاثة أجزاء

    منذ البداية، عرَّفت جمهورية إيران الإسلامية نفسها على أنها دولة دينية يتمتع فيها رجال الدين بمكانة مميزة. ومع ذلك، لم تتمكن السلطات قط من إخفاء مخاوفها المستمرة بشأن ما تعتبره فجوة متنامية بين أفكار العديد من رجال الدين الإيرانيين ووجهات نظر المرشد الأعلى لإيران.

    November 29, 2021

    Khamenei’s concerns over the future of the Iranian clergy (Part 1)
    Photo by Iranian Supreme Leader Press Office / Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Khamenei’s concerns over the future of the Iranian clergy (Part 1)

    The Islamic Republic of Iran, from the very beginning, has defined itself as a religious state, in which the clergy enjoy a privileged status. Nevertheless, the authorities have never managed to hide their fears over what they see as a growing gap between the ideas of many Iranian clerics and the views of Iran’s supreme leader. 

    November 19, 2021

    The Legacy of the Iranian Hostage Crisis
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • The Legacy of the Iranian Hostage Crisis

    Alex Vatanka and Michael Metrinko discuss the Iranian hostage crisis, how it has shaped US-Iran relations, and what that history tells us about the present and potential future of the Islamic Republic. Metrinko also recounts his experience as a political officer at the embassy in Iran in 1979 and being one of the 52 hostages.

    November 10, 2021

    The 3+3 format in the South Caucasus doesn’t add up
    Photo by VANO SHLAMOV/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The 3+3 format in the South Caucasus doesn’t add up

    During his recent visit to Tbilisi, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin poured cold water on the idea of American support for a so-called “3+3 format” in the South Caucasus. When asked about the proposal, he said, “I would just say that Russia, which currently occupies 20% of Georgia’s territory, should focus on honoring its 2008 cease-fire commitments before promoting any new discussion platforms.”

    November 9, 2021

    The IRGC and the Persian Gulf Region in a Period of Contested Deterrence
    Credit: DefaPress.
  • Analysis
  • The IRGC and the Persian Gulf Region in a Period of Contested Deterrence

    The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, vital to the global supply of both oil and liquefied natural gas. The issue of freedom of navigation in the strait has long been a source of tension, but until recently any attempt by Iran to physically close it looked highly implausible, unless it resulted from either a major embargo or total blockade of Iranian ports by the West, or a large-scale military confrontation. However, the events of the past three years showed Iran can still ensure a major disruption of the flow of energy without a formal blockade and without an increased risk of military confrontation with the West. Iran has a variety of means at its disposal, especially through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces, and the Iranians make no secret of their desire to be recognized as the dominant military power in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

    November 3, 2021

    Rural deprivation and regime durability in Iran
    Photo by Isna News Agency/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Rural deprivation and regime durability in Iran

    During the National Day of Villages and Nomads in Iran on Oct. 6, President Ebrahim Raisi visited Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and spoke about combatting rural deprivation, an issue that has become central to Raisi’s domestic agenda.

    November 1, 2021

    Saudi-Iran Talks
    Middle East Institute
  • Podcast
  • Saudi-Iran Talks

    Mohammed Alsulami and Kasra Aarabi join Banafsheh Keynoush to discuss the latest talks between long-time regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. Several rounds of talks between Riyadh and Tehran been held in Baghdad since April. They are taking place amid a broader regional trend toward deconfliction and as negotiations in Vienna over the revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal appear to have bogged down.

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    October 29, 2021

    Has Israel’s campaign between the wars reached an impasse?
     Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Has Israel’s campaign between the wars reached an impasse?

    In recent years, Israel has waged a campaign against the military buildup of its enemies, mainly Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. This ongoing effort is called “the campaign between the wars,” or the Mabam Campaign. Several events in recent weeks have given rise to questions about the effectiveness of this campaign, however, and have underscored the need to rethink its future.

    October 26, 2021

    Where to now for Saudi-Iranian dialogue?
    Photo by Royal Hashemite Court/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • Where to now for Saudi-Iranian dialogue?

    Iran is a neighboring country for Saudi Arabia and we from the Gulf states respect its people and culture, sharing many similarities as nations throughout different historical periods. However, there are, unfortunately, profound disagreements that have significantly increased since the 1979 revolution because of Tehran’s foreign policy approach based on ideological promotion and projection.

    October 21, 2021

    Biden, Raisi and Iran’s Nuclear File
    Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images
  • Commentary
  • Biden, Raisi and Iran’s Nuclear File

    The government of President Ebrahim Raisi has been in place since early August and yet Tehran is still unsure about when and how it should resume the nuclear talks with world powers in Vienna.

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