Iran

Trump’s South Caucasus Peacemaking Is His Most Successful, but It Remains Unfinished
  • Commentary

    • Trump’s South Caucasus Peacemaking Is His Most Successful, but It Remains Unfinished

    Of all the fronts in President Trump’s peacemaking agenda, the South Caucasus has delivered the most concrete results. The August 2025 Washington Declaration, signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan and witnessed by Trump, marked an important step toward peace in the region. The two sides initialed a peace agreement and advanced plans to unblock regional connectivity, including through the establishment of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhijevan exclave through southern Armenia. Implementation of TRIPP has since made notable progress, but construction has yet to start. A breakthrough on those two tracks would, in turn, unlock Armenia–Türkiye normalization, transforming a long-fractured region into an area of trade and interdependence.

    The Iran War Was Always About Regime Change
  • Commentary

    • The Iran War Was Always About Regime Change

    Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.

    Iran’s New War Cabinet Is Really an Old One
  • Analysis

    • Iran’s New War Cabinet Is Really an Old One

    Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.

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    Biden challenged to fortify US power in the Gulf
    Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
  • Analysis

    • Biden challenged to fortify US power in the Gulf

    In the 19th century, the Gulf was a British lake. In the 20th century, American warships played an all but unchallenged role securing the safe and unfettered passage of oil to the West. As the 21st century progresses, the transition to a new era is unstoppable.

    April 20, 2021

    Geoffrey Aronson

    The role of algorithms in the persistent US-Iranian impasse
    Costfoto/Barcroft Media via Getty Images
  • Analysis

    • The role of algorithms in the persistent US-Iranian impasse

    Even if we assume that there is goodwill between the U.S. and Iran to improve relations, the power of algorithms will place major stumbling blocks in the way of efforts toward future normalization. A priori programming of foreign policy options and lines of argument have led to immutable algorithms causing the relationship between the two countries to calcify. On both sides, the key personalities who define national security, interpret events, and shape policies toward one another have had virtually no direct contact or experiences with each other’s country. They interpret events, extract meanings, react to one another, and delineate policies through prisms, images, metaphors, binaries, groupthink, and in the lexicon of artificial intelligence, algorithms.

    April 16, 2021

    Mahmood Sariolghalam

    The China-Iran deal and the reinvention of the Iranian revolution
    Photo by THOMAS PETER/AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis

    • The China-Iran deal and the reinvention of the Iranian revolution

    The announcement of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), a 25 year-long economic and development agreement between China and Iran, has immediately added to the intensifying discourse concerning US-China Geostrategic Competition. Nonetheless, a closer look at its implications suggests that it may be useful in achieving some U.S. goals with Iran: particularly regime modernization.

    April 13, 2021

    Mohammed Baharoon

    فيما يتعلق بإحياء خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة، لدى روسيا خطة ذات مسار مزدوج ومصلحة ثلاثية الأبعاد
  • Commentary

    • فيما يتعلق بإحياء خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة، لدى روسيا خطة ذات مسار مزدوج ومصلحة ثلاثية الأبعاد

    “يبدو الحفاظ على النسخة الأصلية من “خطة العمل الشاملة المشتركة” هو أفضل السُبُل لروسيا لمواءمة هذه الاعتبارات الثلاثة”.

    April 7, 2021

    Maxim A. Suchkov

    ندرة المياه مشكلة إقليمية وتحتاج إلى حل إقليمي
  • Commentary

    • ندرة المياه مشكلة إقليمية وتحتاج إلى حل إقليمي

    “بينما تعد ندرة المياه في إيران وبقية دول الشرق الأوسط مشكلة طويلة الأمد، فإن بعض الجهود للتعامل معها تبدو محاولات يائسة ولم يتم التخطيط لها دائمًا بعناية”.

    Water scarcity could lead to the next major conflict between Iran and Iraq
    Photo by Feriq Ferec/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
  • Analysis

    • Water scarcity could lead to the next major conflict between Iran and Iraq

    Iran and Iraq are frequently at odds over water issues. Iraq depends on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for nearly all of its water. But Iran is building dams to redivert some of that water, causing alarm and creating major water shortages for Iraq.

    March 18, 2021

    Banafsheh Keynoush

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