Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.
Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of US weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.
Muqtada al-Sadr’s victory in Iraqi elections raises alarm in Tehran
Firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s surprising lead in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections has raised alarm in Tehran. The Iranian press expressed the concern that Sadr would seek to undercut the Islamic Republic’s influence in Iraq by marginalizing Iran’s allies and allowing regional Sunni countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to make inroads into Iraqi politics and economy at the expense of Tehran’s interests.
Tehran rejects Putin’s call for troop withdrawal from Syria
Iran’s Foreign Ministry today rejected a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin that all foreign troops should leave Syria after intra-Syrian peace process begins, the Iranian media reported. No one can force Iran to do anything. Iran is an independent country, which determines its own policies. “Iran’s presence is based on the Syrian government’s invitation, and its objective is to fight terrorism and defend Syria’s territorial integrity,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi said at a press briefing in Tehran.
Iran-backed militia leader: “The Iraqis will be the first to enter Jerusalem”
The secretary-general of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, an Iranian-supported Iraqi militia group, has threatened that its forces will fight Israel to seize Jerusalem, according to Shafaaq, an Arab outlet.
Afghans blame Iran and Pakistan for Taliban’s rapid gains in Farah Province
With Afghanistan’s western Farah Province on the verge of falling to the Taliban, Afghan officials and tribal leaders in the province accuse neighboring Iran and Pakistan of aiding the insurgents for political and economic ends.
Trump’s Jerusalem decision destabilizing West Bank and Gaza | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Nathan Stock, Alex Vatanka, Ruba Husari, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the fallout from President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Iran’s diplomatic efforts with Europe to keep the nuclear deal alive, how Iran’s other trading partners are responding to U.S. warnings of sanctions, and Britain’s efforts to cultivate closer ties with Turkey.
Alex Vatanka and Gerald Feierstein join host Paul Salem to discuss reactions in the region and around the world to Trump’s announcement that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and restore sanctions on Iran.
Iran’s militia allies in Iraq eye election victory to consolidate gains, expel US
As Iraqis are heading to the polls on Saturday to vote in the country’s parliamentary elections, the Fateh Alliance, a coalition dominated by Iranian-backed militia groups, is confident that it will win sufficient parliamentary seats to choose the country’s next prime minister. Abu Ala al-Wa’eli, the commander of Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, a militia unit within the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) and part of the Fateh Alliance, said the alliance has not nominated anyone to become the next prime minister but will play the kingmaker in the post-election government formation process.
Special briefing: The far-reaching impacts of Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal
In this special briefing, MEI experts Bilal Y. Saab, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Ahmad Majidyar, Gerald Feierstein, Gonul Tol, and Marvin G. Weinbaum discuss President Trump’s announcement that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and its ramifications for the region.
Iran’s Sixth Five-Year Development Plan (2016-21) identifies the energy sector as a key source of revenue and driver of economic growth.[1] The plan envisages increasing oil output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 4.8 million bpd.[2] Achieving this ambitious target will require substantial foreign investment, technology, and expertise.
Trump's goal in Iran is regime change | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s decision on whether to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, what this weekend’s election results in Lebanon indicate about Hezbollah’s standing in the country, and expectations for the outcome of Iraq’s elections on May 12.
Rouhani rejects JCPOA renegotiation, hints Tehran may remain in deal without US
In contrast to bellicose statements from Tehran in recent days, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said today that Tehran would remain in the 2015 nuclear accord, even if the Trump administration abandoned it. But he said Tehran would stick to the deal only if other signatories of the deal assure Tehran that the Islamic Republic will continue to benefit from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
IRGC's role in Iran's economy growing with its engineering arm set to execute 40 mega-projects
The commander of Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base, the main engineering arm of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), has said that the conglomerate will complete 40 mega-projects in the current Iranian year, which began on March 21.
Iranian leaders say “axis of resistance” will retaliate against Israel for Syria strikes
On an official visit to Damascus this week, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy committee said that the Islamic Republic would retaliate against Israel for last month’s strikes on an air Syrian military base that killed several Iranian nationals. “We will respond to any aggression on Iran at the appropriate time and place,” Alaeddin Boroujerdi said at a news conference in the Syrian capital on Tuesday. The senior Iranian lawmaker made the remarks after meeting with President Bashar al-Assad and top Syrian officials and parliamentarians.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
