After the US-Israel-Iran war — and the strikes that followed the cease-fire — the Gulf states find themselves dangerously exposed. Host Alistair Taylor is joined by MEI Associate Fellow Gregory Gause to discuss the war’s impact on the Gulf, their partnership with the United States, and whether the turmoil of recent months will push Gulf leaders to reassess their alliances and international engagement.
The Gulf’s Strategic Paradox: Lost Confidence in the US Security Umbrella, Enduring Trust in the Dollar
This essay argues that the current debate about the future of the international monetary system is not really about Gulf currencies, oil pricing, or de-dollarization in the narrow technical sense. It is about something deeper and more important: whether institutional trust can survive when geopolitical certainty is eroding.
Agile Power: The UAE’s External Policy in an Era of Fragmentation
The external policy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is increasingly shaped by systemic fragmentation, regional insecurity, and shifting patterns of great-power engagement. In response, Abu Dhabi has moved away from reliance on fixed alignments toward a strategy of strategic diversification across security, economic, and technological domains.
Climate-induced migration in the GCC states: A looming challenge
Gulf states are collectively investing billions of dollars in developing renewable energy. Yet climate change patterns in neighboring regions, combined with rising average temperatures, could eventually trigger more serious climate migration problems for the Gulf countries themselves.
The Gulf states: Beneficiaries of the Russia-Europe energy war?
The Gulf states are often overlooked as indirect beneficiaries of the Russia-Europe energy war. In what ways and to what extent have they leveraged it? Are these benefits sustainable?
Dispatches from Sharm el-Sheikh: Reviewing COP27 from the MENA perspective
Participating in COP27 provided a unique opportunity to view the proceedings firsthand and evaluate the effectiveness of the meeting in advancing critical climate priorities that can alter the alarming trajectory of future climate change.
Structural impediments to Iranian-Gulf Arab reconciliation
As welcome as recent moves toward Iranian-Gulf détente have been, extensive obstacles continue to stand in the way of a real and sustained relaxation of tensions, cause by what international relations scholars call the “security dilemma.”
Under current, highly unpredictable market conditions, it is unreasonable for OPEC to make sharp movements to saturate the oil market or withdraw a significant number of barrels from it to meet divergent Western interests of lowering prices and punishing Russia.
Technology represents one potentially fruitful area where the I2U2 member states — Israel, India, the U.S. and the UAE — could cooperate together, expand their format to include more countries, deliver tangible results, and avoid agitating other global and regional powers.
Two years on, what is the state of the Abraham Accords?
Two years after the signing of the Abraham Accords, progress in developing relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors has achieved mixed results, opening up some greater cooperation in the security sphere but failing to change Arab publics’ minds due to the lack of movement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Emirati-backed forces eye Yemen’s energy heartland
The battle for control of the Yemeni heartland and its energy resources has reached a turning point. Yemen’s internationally recognized institutions are, once again, in crisis. In fact, the current infighting within the “government camp” threatens both the long-stalled implementation of the 2019 Riyadh Agreement and the political legitimacy of the newly-established Presidential Leadership Council.
The diplomatic ice is breaking in the Gulf. What does that mean for the region?
The announcements in mid-August that both the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait will be returning their ambassadors to Tehran after six years provided the latest indication that the diplomatic ice has started to break in the Gulf region.
The July 2022 leaders’ meeting took good steps on energy and food security, but Egypt and Saudi Arabia can help take the I2U2 to the next level when it comes to regional security.
We need it yesterday: Air-defense missile sales in a period of maximum demand
Saudi Arabia and the UAE purchased $5 billion of U.S. air-defense missiles at a time when multiple American partners around the world are also looking to buy the same systems. The main effort in the Gulf will continue to be training and provisions of the material to develop an indigenous missile-defense capability.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
