This article is part of a collection of short essays written by the Fellows of the Middle East Institute to explore aspects of the ongoing war with Iran. The intent of the collection is to help readers see new and unexpected elements of the dynamics and impact of the ongoing hostilities and to think harder, deeper, and broader about the implications of the conflict.
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
When the US and Israel launched military action against Iran on February 28, 2026, it set in motion a chain of events that saw violence spread across the Middle East. Yet as the region found itself engulfed in conflict, Syria has experienced its most peaceful months in 15 years, and the government in Damascus appears determined to stay its course toward recovery.
Monday Briefing: ISIS losing territory, President Erdogan visits Sudan
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, W. Robert Pearson, and Yousef Munayyer provide analysis on ISIS’ continued threat to security despite losing territory, President Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Sudan as a political calculation, and Mohammed Dahlan’s effort to return to Palestinian politics.
Israel and Hezbollah have recently raised the profile of their long quiescent front across the Blue Line border. Warnings have increased that a conflict will soon engulf Lebanon, and perhaps even draw in the United States. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to attack Israel’s nuclear reactor at Dimona and Israeli chemical installations in Haifa.
Iran: Missile Strikes in Syria Carry Wider Warning to Regional States and U.S.
On Sunday, the Iranian military said it had launched six missiles at Islamic State positions in Syria in retaliation for the June 7 attacks in Tehran claimed by the terrorist group. A statement by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) confirmed that it fired medium-range missiles from bases in the western Iranian provinces of Kermanshah and Kurdistan and killed a “large number” of Islamic State terrorists in Syria’s Deir Az Zour province.
Monday Briefing: Eastern Syria a Hotbed of Geopolitical Interests
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on eastern Syria as a new hotbed of geopolitical competition, Iranian responses to the Islamic State attack, additional U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and renewed Saudi succession speculation.
Russia’s claim to have killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an airstrike in Raqqa on May 28 should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. At the time in question, the U.S.-led Syrian Democratic Forces (S.D.F.) were only days away from launching their final assault on the city and there’s no logical reason imaginable why Baghdadi would have risked staying in a surrounded, sitting target. Notwithstanding justified doubts surrounding Baghdadi’s then presence in Raqqa, Russia’s statement also says its strike killed another 330 ISIS fighters – which is almost certainly an absurd claim.
Iran-Backed Forces Link Up along Syrian-Iraqi Border near al-Tanf despite U.S. Warnings
Iranian-supported Shiite militia forces in Iraq and Syria have finally linked up along the shared border between the two countries, Fars News Agency reports.
Since the outbreak of the Syrian war, Turkey has become a critical conduit for international humanitarian operations and life-saving economic support to approximately three million Syrian refugees. Turkey’s decision to restrict various international NGOs from operating within its territory is now disrupting crucial provisions to those in both northern Syria, and inside its own borders.
Iranian Media Weighs Pros and Cons of Tehran’s Role in Gulf Crisis
After President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh last month, Iranian leaders were worried about the creation of a U.S.-supported alliance of regional Arab states led by Saudi Arabia to counter Irani
Six months after the heavily publicized defeat of Syrian rebel forces in Aleppo to the Assad government, the once magnificent metropolis and largest city of northern Syria is still reeling from the consequences of years of violent conflict. The elaborate communal, economic and material threads that for centuries had made up the social fabric underpinning the city’s wealth, as well as its physical and societal integrity, may have been irreparably damaged. Today, much of the city lies in rubble and many of its once proud inhabitants have been reduced to abject poverty.
It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words, presumably for what it depicts, but what is the value of what a picture doesn’t show? To some, it is nothing; for others, it is everything.
Can the Trump Admin get its Act Together on G.C.C. Crisis? | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gerald Feierstein, Robert S. Ford, Alex Vatanka, and Ruba Husari provide analysis on the Trump administration’s handling of the G.C.C. crisis, how Iran and energy markets have responded to it, and the escalating conflict in eastern Syria.
Afghan Militia Led by Soleimani Reach Syrian-Iraqi Border in Defiance of U.S.
Iranian-led Afghan Shiite militia forces have made significant territorial gains in southeastern Syria and have reached the shared border between Syria and Iraq, the Iranian media reports.
Rouhani Blasts U.S. Strikes in Syria and Reiterates Support for Assad
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani hailed the latest military gains by the Syrian army and its allies and reiterated Tehran’s continued support to Damascus in a telephone conversation with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad earlier today. The Iranian president also condemned the latest U.S. strikes against pro-Damascus forces in southeastern Syria as a violation of international law.
G.C.C. Conflict Could Further Complicate U.S.-Turkey Relations | MEI Flash
A fierce spat between Qatar and leading Arab nations could add another complication to the already strained relationship between the United States and Turkey. Ankara wants to calm the tension, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spoken by phone with the leaders of Qatar, Russia, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia to reduce tensions. He has also expedited legislation to deploy troops to Qatar as part of a military agreement signed in 2014. President Donald Trump, however, supports, and even takes credit for, the Saudi move to isolate its smaller neighbor.
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