Levant

In reaction to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent Gaza war, the Biden administration articulated six main objectives. After nine months of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has repeatedly threatened to spill out into neighboring theaters, the Biden administration’s success toward achieving these goals has mostly declined, not for a lack of effort but rather a reflection of considerable challenges in the environment and major shortcomings in policy conceptualization and implementation.

The conventional wisdom is that Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian is yet another bit of window dressing put up by the “deep state” in Tehran, which effectively calls the shots on the most contentious foreign policy files. But it might just be that Pezeshkian’s sudden emergence as president was orchestrated from the outset as a pretext for the Iranian regime to change course.

The recent Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv, which struck an Israeli apartment building near the Embassy of the United States, killing at least one person, should surprise no one. And the fact Israel’s state-of-the-art air defense could not prevent it will probably embolden future attempts.

The Houthis’ strategy of escalation has the potential to upset the fragile balance of power in the Middle East and underlines the ability of smaller actors to influence larger geopolitical outcomes through calculated risks and alliances.

Turkey’s loyalty to the Alliance is frequently questioned, including accusations of fence-sitting, especially when it comes to Russia. To ask, “Who lost Turkey?” is to misread the situation. Turkey is increasingly, albeit carefully, moving away from the Kremlin.

US President Joe Biden will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to Washington this week. The meeting provides an opportunity to double down on considerations of what a “day after” might look like and how best to promote moderate Palestinian voices in the effort to rebuild Gaza.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Six years ago, the Syrian regime conquered the southern province of Daraa, popularly known by millions of Syrians as the “cradle of the revolution.” That military victory represented a pivotal moment for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. After all, it was the last time the regime captured a sizable swath of opposition territory, and in doing so in July 2018, its impunity was laid bare for all the world to see. On paper, Daraa had been designated a “de-escalation zone” after months of intensive international diplomacy in which the United States had played a central role.

On July 16, CENTCOM announced that after six months of 2024, “ISIS is on pace to more than double” the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it claimed in 2023. But the reality is far worse than this statement suggested because the data represents only a fraction of ISIS’s actual attacks in Syria and Iraq.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

At the Washington Summit, NATO member states mostly focused on efforts to counter Russia and to support Ukraine. However, the 2024 summit communiqué also addresses non-Euro-Atlantic risks and opportunities, based on the idea that “conflict, fragility and instability” elsewhere directly affects NATO security.

Despite their popular nature, the protests in northwestern Syria, sparked by racist attacks on Syrians over the border in Turkey, have exposed the rifts and divisions between various opposition factions. Bilal Samir explores the positions of the major military groups in Turkish-controlled areas and assesses how closely they align with Turkey’s policy.

The Syrian regime recently announced that it had arrested over 2,000 people in Damascus on drug-related charges during the first half of 2024. However, the relatively small amount of drugs confiscated suggests the regime is focusing on arresting users and street-level pushers rather than going after the major producers and traffickers. This highlights how the Syrian regime manipulates drug crackdowns to serve multiple agendas while ensuring the flow of illicit drugs continues uninterrupted.

After two decades in power and following the Justice and Development Party’s historic defeat in the 2024 local elections, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now at his most vulnerable. What comes next is not only important for the future prospects of Turkish democracy but also holds important lessons for autocrats across the world. Scholars Evren Balta, Seda Demiralp, Edgar Şar, and M. Murat Kubilay seek to answer key questions about the country’s political, economic, and foreign policy trajectory in a new report from the Middle East Institute.

For years under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey pursued an unconventional monetary policy. The situation, long untenable, finally became unsustainable in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2023. In the immediate aftermath of the vote, President Erdoğan announced a dramatic shift, returning to orthodox monetary policy. While there have been tangible improvements on a number of fronts as a result, the country faces both declining household purchasing power in the short term and a range of broader economic challenges in the longer run.