المشرق العربي

مرت 30 عامًا منذ أن وقعت إسرائيل والأردن معاهدة سلام في 26 أكتوبر 1994. ولكن بدلاً من الاحتفالات، اتسم هذا الذكرى السنوية بخيبة أمل كبيرة وحتى باليأس. يُزعم أن العلاقات بين البلدين وصلت إلى أدنى مستوياتها على الإطلاق، وأن الآفاق المستقبلية تبدو قاتمة، مع استمرار الحرب في غزة وابتعاد السلام بين الإسرائيليين والفلسطينيين أكثر من أي وقت مضى. ومع ذلك، أثبتت العلاقات بين إسرائيل والأردن مرونتها، حتى في مواجهة الأزمة الحالية، ويواصل البلدان تعزيز مصالحهما المشتركة الحيوية.

The multiple wars that have erupted since Oct. 7, 2023, have already changed the strategic landscape in the Middle East — and more change is likely to follow.

it is possible to extrapolate how the incoming second Trump administration may respond to the complex situation in the Middle East by examining the president-elect’s record during his first term, what he has said since, as well as public statements of his running-mate, Sen. J. D. Vance. Two main issues are likely to dominate Donald Trump’s regional agenda when he comes to power: Iran and Israeli-Palestinian affairs.

The devastating conflict that erupted on Oct. 7, 2023, dealt a near-fatal blow to efforts by Israeli and Palestinian civil society organizations, leaving both sides feeling as though they have returned to square one. The unprecedented violence and severity of the war have profoundly altered the consciousness of both Israelis and Palestinians, reinforcing a sense of existential struggle. Efforts to engage the public must contend with a hardening of positions and sentiment.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

The Black Sea has recently become one of the world’s most important dynamically shifting geostrategic maritime areas, with Ukraine playing a crucial role in upending the naval balance of power there. Ukraine’s efforts to push back against Russia, bolstered by Western military aid, have challenged the status quo and reshaped the region’s security landscape.

The following is a short abstract, offering the main analytical findings and policy takeaways from a newly released Middle East Institute report on post-war reconstruction in Syria.

Since the end of the civil war in Syria, government officials have inaugurated high-end tourist projects and upscale urban housing schemes, while at the same time preventing Syrian refugees and internally displaced persons from returning to their ruined neighborhoods or rebuilding their demolished homes. The focus on luxury housing in a country devastated by conflict and within a city suffering from massive destruction and housing shortages encapsulates the contradictions of the regime’s policy for reconstruction and early recovery not only in Damascus but in the whole country.

Gunmen armed with explosives and assault rifles assailed the headquarters of Turkey’s state-run aerospace company near Ankara on October 23, in a terrorist attack claimed by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK). The incident complicates President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts to exploit the regional chaos that followed Hamas’s attack on Israel a year ago to advance his domestic and regional goals. 

Israel’s escalation of its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon has severely disrupted the cross-border flow of goods into Syria that have long served as a critical lifeline for Damascus. These interruptions have worsened existing shortages, triggering sharp increases in the prices of essential commodities for Syrian who were already struggling economically.

Last week, representatives from around 70 countries convened in Paris to pledge nearly $1 billion in aid for Lebanon. Moving forward, France and the US should work together to summon the political will needed to craft and implement a lasting political solution — one that can effectively safeguard against future wars between Israel and Lebanon.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

This policy assessment examines the statements and positions staked out by the Harris and Trump campaigns on the Middle East. The spotlight is on the past few weeks, with a stronger focus on two main issues that are likely to dominate the regional agenda of the next US administration: Iran and Israeli-Palestinian affairs.

Over the past month, Iran and its regional network of allies and proxies – the Axis of Resistance – has suffered a string of dramatic losses and defeats. What is the future of the Axis and its members, and what can the US and its allies do to confront and disrupt this Iranian-led network?

MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj speaks to Meir Javedanfar and Alex Vatanka on Iran’s role in keeping its network of proxies together and the conflicting interests that may force the country to rethink its antagonistic regional strategy.