Levant

We’re only in May but it’s safe to say that 2023 has been one of the longest years in the history of Turkish politics. The main issues in the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are the deteriorating economic conditions and identity politics. For the first time in two decades President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is heading into an election not in the lead.

It is a cliché for politicians to claim that an upcoming election is the most critical vote in the history of the country. In Turkey’s case, however, the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are indeed the most consequential ever. The prospects for Turkey’s democratic future are at stake.

Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: more signs of opposition strength, the stoning of İmamoğlu’s campaign bus in Erzurum, Babacan’s economic role, and the ruling coalition takes off the gloves.

The U.S. administration is tacitly contributing to growing acceptance and re-normalization of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the 21st century’s most notorious war criminal, putting in jeopardy the continuation of our counter-terrorism mission in Syria. Assad is toasting his survival on the ashes of his victims — but within the small community of optimistic actors in Syria, ISIS is sitting pretty comfortably too.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is at its core an ideological army, not a national one, and its notorious enmity toward Israel is an aberration in Iranian history. But many Israelis to this day think Iran could be a natural partner as long as the country gave up its pursuit of ideologically driven regional dominance, disavow calls for the destruction of Israel, and were instead to again allow the regular army, the Artesh, to pursue Iranian national interests.

Lebanon is on the verge of complete collapse, and if Washington is serious about preventing not just another failed state but a growing normalization of unchecked authoritarianism in the Middle East, it must stop outsourcing leadership on Lebanon to France.

The Syrian conflict has had a major impact on Turkey’s internal political discourse, with much of the discussion centering around the conflict itself, Turkey’s role in northern Syria, and the refugee crisis. This paper employs a scenario analysis methodology to explore potential outcomes that may impact Northwestern Syria following the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14.

Both historical and modern-day conflicts in the Middle East have all been centered around classical territorial considerations of the loss or recovery of land. Escaping that cycle required a shift away from one of the main root causes of conflict: geography. The current changes in the region, characterized by a significant drive toward de-escalation and a growing willingness to periodically part ways with traditional allies, may be telling symptoms of a profound tectonic shift toward “quantum politics.”

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: Erdoğan falls ill, Kılıçdaroğlu rallies in an AKP stronghold, Erdoğan dials up the culture war, concerns grow over election security, and what the polls tell us.

Over the coming decades, the worsening effects of climate change will increasingly displace many millions of vulnerable people in the Middle East and North Africa, and many of these refugees will attempt to relocate to the Global North. To avert such a monumental looming problem requires pragmatic solutions and their swift implementation.

Read MEI’s weekly briefing featuring expert analysis of key regional developments for the week ahead.

Catch up with the latest developments about Turkey’s May elections with weekly updates from MEI’s Turkey Program. In this week’s installment of Turkish Election Watch: The Kılıçdaroğlu campaign gets exciting, Erdoğan adds natural gas discount to pre-vote handouts and dials up the tension, and the top electoral body makes a surprising decision.

It has been an accepted fact that ISIS ceased being a territory-controlling entity in Syria after its March 2019 defeat in the town of Baghouz. Yet it is perhaps time to reevaluate this perspective on the group and its insurgent trajectory in the country. While recent massacres of civilians in central Syria have refocused some international attention on the desert region, known as the Badia, the renewed widespread battles between militants and regime security forces that have occurred in parallel to these attacks have gone unnoticed.

Last week’s spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, D.C., were an important occasion for financial and economic leaders from the MENA region to meet with their counterparts from these IFIs and major bilateral donor countries. At the same time, they serve as a lead up to the important Annual Meetings that will be held in Marrakech, Morocco, in the fall — the first time they will be hosted by an Arab or African country.