المشرق العربي

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

Last week’s collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in Ukraine is one of the largest environmental disaster the Black Sea region and Europe has faced in decades. Its far-reaching environmental, economic, and humanitarian consequences will affect not just Ukraine and the Black Sea region, but also the Middle East and Africa.

Turkey is a test case of the limits of international human rights law in an authoritarian context. The country is party to all major U.N. and Council of Europe international human rights treaties, including those prohibiting torture and ill treatment, and is subject to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights. Its constitution and laws ban torture and contain procedural safeguards against it. Yet torture and the impunity of its perpetrators remain state practice, at times reaching systemic levels.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

U.S. leadership has been active in offering short-term humanitarian help in Lebanon, but U.S. interests in the country’s stability will be compromised without longer-term attention to the challenges that will determine its viability: from the catastrophic humanitarian and security breakdown, to the destabilizing domestic and regional implications of mounting social and economic tensions and an unsustainable refugee crisis, and the political repercussions of polarization and continued political uncertainty.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

تحليل إقليمي متخصص من قبل باحثي ومساهمي معهد الشرق الأوسط.

The Middle East is undergoing a historic transformation with unprecedented opportunities to build new relationships, de-escalate tensions, and foster conditions for stronger integration. At the same time, the region remains on edge because of ongoing tensions in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and other conflict zones, a civil war that broke out recently in Sudan, along with the overarching challenges presented by fraught relations between Iran, Israel, and several Arab Gulf countries — with the longer-term implications of the still-fragile Iranian-Saudi rapprochement yet to be fully assessed.

Dynamics between Israel and the Arab world have taken a turn for the worse in the first few months of the new Israeli government. The positive momentum in Israel-Arab relations, which Prime Minister Netanyahu himself was key in generating through the signing of the Abraham Accords and which picked up pace during the Bennett-Lapid government that followed, has slowed down. Only limited progress may be feasible under the current government, but conditions for positive change do exist and include marginalizing Israeli extremists, avoiding a flare-up with the Palestinians, reducing the domestic turmoil in Israel, and ensuring the effective involvement of the U.S. and the EU.

To analyze the crossroads Turkey faces in the 2023 elections, it could prove useful to “look back from the alternative futures” and explore how the possible outcomes might play out. What could it look like if we look back from 2030 to another victory by Erdoğan? And how might have the last seven years played out had the opposition won?

Both Washington and Jerusalem welcome any reduction in regional tensions and prospects for a more stable, secure, and prosperous environment. However, there is a risk for U.S. and Israeli policy priorities, such as that regional de-escalation will reduce pressure on Tehran to negotiate on issues of concern, especially its nuclear weapons program.

اقرأ تقرير MEI الأسبوعي الذي يتضمن تحليلات الخبراء للتطورات الإقليمية الرئيسية للأسبوع المقبل.

This week on Turkish Election Watch: The May 14 election results, the race to the right ahead of the May 28 run-off and Oğan’s endorsement of Erdoğan, and a closer look at the nature of the election.