Research & Commentary Results

In the early hours of Sunday, May 3, Jordanian F-16 fighter jets crossed into Syrian airspace and launched strikes on at least six locations in the southern province of Sweida. In a statement issued hours later, Jordan’s military said that “Operation Jordanian Deterrence” had targeted “factories, facilities and warehouses used by trafficking groups as launch points for smuggling operations into Jordan.”

When the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran a month ago, the Middle East was plunged into debilitating conflict. Nevertheless, Syria has remarkably just completed its most stable month in 15 years. Damascus and its international partners must capitalize on this opportunity.

Brian is joined by Dana Stroul, Director of Research and Shelly and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to examine US objectives in the Middle East in the midst of the ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran. Drawing on her extensive experience in US policymaking, most notably as the Pentagon’s top civilian official responsible for the Middle East from 2021 to 2023, Dana offers an insider’s perspective on this strategic moment. Together, Dana and Brian unpack the rapidly developing situation in Iran, the fragility of the ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, the shifting landscape in Syria after Assad, and the United States’ role in a region that may be on the cusp of transformation.

After more than 50 years of brutal dictatorial rule and 13 years of civil conflict, the first year of Syria’s transition has been complex, imperfect, and fraught with difficulties. However, despite some significant challenges, Syria is clearly stabilizing. To sustain this progress, the United States must remain engaged.

Dramatic developments in Syria have delivered a major blow to Kurdish ambitions for self-rule. In a rapid offensive, Damascus moved into northeast Syria, forcing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) out and effectively dismantling the autonomous region the Kurds had built during the civil war.

Syria’s transition still faces a formidable array of challenges — from the implementation of the deal to integrate the SDF into state structures and the military, to the economy, reconstruction, transitional justice and accountability, refugee returns, and geopolitical tensions with Israel. However, a steady and significant decline in violence offers perhaps the most encouraging and consequential metric.

Donald Trump’s first year of his second presidential term has been a roller coaster of twists and turns both at home and abroad—particularly in the Middle East. His regional focus was driven by two main factors: first, Trump’s own ego and sense of possible place in history; and second, the volatile, dynamic events driven by actors in the region.

After 10 months of US-mediated talks failed to achieve an integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces into Syria’s transitional state, hostilities erupted in early January. US diplomacy stepped in to try to calm tensions and force through the integration of the SDF’s Kurdish core into the Syrian state. Here are 10 key takeaways and indications of where things could go next.

Whether the truce between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces holds or collapses will have major implications for neighboring Turkey, which has long-standing interests in Syria, but recent developments already point to a win for Ankara.

Pakistan’s relationship with the Afghan Taliban has shifted from open sponsorship in the 1990s to a silent partnership following 2001 to alienation and belligerence since 2021. Their current conflict, which comes at great cost to both countries and seems to have no easy military or political resolution, also poses a threat to the stability and prosperity of neighboring states. Although American strategic interests in the region greatly diminished following the United States’ military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, the region’s altered political dynamics have prompted a growing American engagement with Pakistan and tentatively with Afghanistan. At the same time, the US has become a factor in how both Islamabad and Kabul have come to form their national security strategies.

After months of building tensions, full-blown hostilities erupted between Syria’s transitional government and militia fighters linked to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Aleppo on January 6. Through four days of fighting, government forces have now assumed full control of Syria’s second city, after expelling SDF-linked forces from its northwestern districts.

Brian sits down with Robert Malley, a former US official best known for his role as the lead negotiator of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Malley discusses the motivations behind his new book, Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine, and offers his assessment of American perspectives on the war in Gaza. The conversation also explores his personal background as the son​ of an Egyptian Jewish father and an American Jewish mother—both outspoken on the political left—and how that upbringing shaped his worldview, alongside a career spanning the Clinton, Obama, and Biden administrations.

One year after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria is still in very fragile phase of its transition to a new political order. The country faces monumental reconstruction challenges, estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars, well beyond the capabilities of the new Syrian government. Without sustained American leadership and investment, Syria’s transition will be slow, fragile, and dangerously reversible.