Research & Commentary

On Sept. 13, Bahrain recognized Israel at a ceremony attended by US President Donald Trump at the White House. With the stroke of a pen, Bahrain became the fourth Arab state to have forged official ties with Israel, following in the footsteps of Egypt (1979), Jordan (1994), and most recently, the UAE (Aug. 13, 2020).

The Department of Defense (DoD) border security assistance programs in the Middle East region have helped partner countries to defend their borders against terrorist militia groups and other transnational security threats in the region. These programs set the standard for how the US military can foster long-term stability in the Middle East, while gradually drawing down its presence in the region.

Over the past decade, Egypt and China — the former a traditional US partner and the latter America’s strategic competitor — have forged ever-deeper ties. During that time, Beijing has sought to leverage its relationship with Egypt to advance the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while Cairo has looked to China as a critical partner in the revitalization of the Egyptian economy. Entering 2020, Egypt was one of the fastest-growing emerging markets, and the Sino-Egyptian economic relationship was thriving. However, the fallout from the pandemic could undermine Egypt’s recent success in restoring growth and regaining investor confidence. It could also test the resilience and delay the further expansion of Sino-Egyptian economic ties.

Are the treaties with the UAE and Bahrain in any way comparable to previous genuine milestones, like the agreements with Egypt and Jordan? Can we realistically see them as helping to lead the way to a brighter future, at least as far as Israel’s conflicts with its neighbors are concerned? The answer is almost certainly “not really.”

Fierce fighting between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces represents a dramatic escalation in longstanding tensions, with the two countries on an all-out war footing following over a week of battle. Although the fighting has already dramatically eclipsed previous spikes in violence since the 1994 ceasefire, the most recent conflagration shows no signs of abating anytime soon, and raises the specter of even greater escalation among regional and global powers.

In the recently released Showtime documentary “Kingdom of Silence” by Alex Gibney and Lawrence Wright, I made the statement that with hindsight the U.S. may have been better off never having occupied Afghanistan. That comment has brought some questions and responses, so let me be clear about what I mean and why.

This week’s briefing on recent news and upcoming events in the region featuring Robert S. Ford, Gonul Tol, Paul Salem, Dr. Marwa Maziad, and Marvin G. Weinbaum.

“الوقف الكامل للهجمات ضد المصالح الأمريكية غير مُرجح في المستقبل المنظور”.

On September 27, hostilities broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Following several days of fighting, the region is now witnessing the worst escalation of tensions since the early 1990s. This time, Azerbaijan’s efforts are boosted by Turkey’s readiness to render robust military support.

– ماذا سيحصل إذا لم يكن هناك رابح في يوم الانتخابات؟ على ماذا ينص الدستور في تلك الحالة؟ هل فراغ سياسي وارد في واشنطن؟
– هل يمكن حقّاً ألّا يتنازل ترامب عن السلطة؟
– هل يمكن التلاعب بالتصويت عن طريق البريد؟
– لم غابت السياسة الخارجية كليّاً عن المناظرة؟ هل كان ذلك بقرار من المرشّحين؟ أم من مدير المناظرة من قناة فوكس؟
– من يقوم بتنظيم المناظرات الرئاسية في الولايات المتحدة؟ هل يمكن تعديل شكل المناظرة لمنع المرشحين من مقاطعة بعضهما؟ هل يمكن إجبارهما على الالتزام بذلك؟
– “تراجعوا واستعدّوا”: هذا ما قاله ترامب لمنظمة عنصرية فاشية تؤمن بالقومية البيضاء وتمنع النساء من الانضمام لصفوفها وتحثّ على العنف السياسي ضد خصومها – كيف يمكن أن يؤثر ذلك على الناخبين الأمريكيين؟
– قال بايدن بأن حركة “أنتيفا” اليسارية الراديكالية ليست منظمة، هل هذا الكلام صحيح؟ لمَ يريد ترامب تصنيفها كمنظمة إرهابية؟
– من أين تأتي أهمية معركة المحكمة الدستورية العليا؟ كيف يمكن أن تغيّر القاضية التي يريد ترامب تعيينها شكل الحياة في الولايات المتحدة، خصوصاً حياة المهاجرين والأقليات والنساء؟

With the announcement that Kuwait’s long-time ruler, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, had passed away, on Sept. 29, at the age of 91, the Gulf states lost their second senior statesman of 2020 following the death of Sultan Qaboos of Oman at the beginning of the year. Like Qaboos, Sheikh Sabah played an outsized role within the GCC as well as in regional and international affairs.

Fourteen years after the Palestinian pro-Islamist group Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in 2006, Palestinians may finally be returning to elections as a mechanism to resolve their differences and to present a unified legitimate national leadership. In a sign of progress toward reconciliation, Palestinian leaders met in person and over teleconference on September 3 and vowed to address threats to the Palestinian national movement. Most recently, President Abbas, addressing the U.N. General Assembly on September 25, declared that presidential elections would take place soon.The question now will be whether a unified Palestinian policy, means of accomplishing it, and a new leadership can be born in the coming six months.

As the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain move forward with their separate processes to normalize relations with Israel, the question that seems to be on the mind of many, both in Washington and in the region, is whether or when the Saudis will follow.

Over the past decade, Iran has made a concerted push to expand its cyber capabilities, an effort in which the IRGC has played a central role. Given the IRGC’s expansive and growing power, scholars, analysts, and many Iran watchers have long thought that at some point it could take over control in Iran, replacing the theocratic government with a military one. As Iran approaches an inflection point over the issue of succession after Ayatollah Khamenei, that day could be coming soon, and the IRGC is well placed to bring about such a transition given the hybrid mix of physical and cyber capabilities that it has developed and perfected over recent decades.

In recent years, China has become increasingly involved in the international arena, including the Middle East. As a rising superpower, China finds itself, time and again, needing to maintain relationships with countries that are hostile to one another. This is particularly true in the Middle East, which is one of the most conflictual areas in the world. China faces a challenge as it seeks to maintain good relations with both Iran and Israel, two of the region’s fiercest and loudest adversaries. How does Beijing manage to do this, and can it continue to do so going forward?