A Post-War Model for Verifying Iran’s Missile Arsenal
This study proposes a model for constraining and verifying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal by employing a layered Strategic Verification Model with seven components: comprehensive baseline declarations; missile test and launch monitoring; intrusive inspections; quantitative and qualitative limits on missile capabilities; production controls, especially on solid-fuel manufacturing; a robust enforcement and compliance architecture; and regional confidence building measures.
The 2026 Iran war has made Lebanon a core Gulf security concern, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar now have a narrow opportunity to curb Hizballah’s influence by leading reconstruction, strengthening Lebanese state institutions, and tying economic re-engagement to reform.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
This backgrounder provides an overview of how the Abraham Accords came about, the US interests involved, their economic and strategic consequences, and the prospects for further enlargement going forward.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
In our final episode of the year, Paul Salem interviews several MEI scholars on the key events that transpired across the Middle East in 2017 including in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Guests include Gerald Feierstein, Charles Lister, Gonul Tol, and Alex Vatanka.
Iran Plans to Keep Long-Term Military Presence in Syria
A senior Iranian officials has said that Tehran will keep its military presence in Syria for the long haul, the Iranian media reported. “Based on the request of the legitimate government of Syria, we will continue our presence and advisory assistance until all terrorist groups in this country are destroyed,” said Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
Khamenei Aide: Iran Will Support “Resistance” to Confront U.S. in Region
A senior aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said that Iran will continue to aid the “resistance” forces in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to confront U.S. influence in the Middle East. “Victory in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen will continue as long as the resistance coalition defends its achievements. And as long as necessary, we will have a presence in these countries. The Islamic Republic of Iran has an active presence [in these countries].
After the publication in 2017 of my book Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes, co-authored with RP Eddy, I have been often asked what my predictions are for possible trouble ahead. The point of the book was that there are recognized, data-driven experts who see things accurately before other experts, not that I am capable of seeing disasters coming.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Paramilitaries Gearing up for Next Year’s Elections
The leader of a prominent Iranian-backed unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) said today that his group will hand over its heavy and medium weapons to the Iraqi security forces, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported. Qais al-Khazali, the head of the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, called on the Iraqi government to value P.M.F. forces as an asset and treat them fairly. The A.A.H.
Iranian Cleric Calls for Arming Palestinians for “Third Intifada”
A senior Iranian cleric today called for arming Palestinians to wage a “third intifada” against Israel, Fars News Agency reported. The interim Friday prayer of Tehran told worshippers that the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria has further solidified Iran’s influence in the region and stressed that the creation of Iranian-led “resistance” forces in the region will lead to the destruction of Israel. “The enemies created Daesh [ISIS] so as to create a security shield for Israel.
After Iraq and Syria, I.R.G.C. Seeking to “Expand” Its Role in Yemen and Broader Region
Emboldened by its recent gains in Syria and Iraq, Iranian military leaders are seeking to play a more aggressive role in other regional conflicts in order to “expand” Iranian influence and export the “Islamic Revolution.” In particular, latest statements by commanders of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and commentaries in the Iranian media suggest that the I.R.G.C. is planning to further increase its support for its Houthi allies in Yemen.
All the President’s Militias: Assad’s Militiafication of Syria
After nearly seven years of war, the military balance of power in Syria appears to have shifted in favor of President Bashar al-Assad and his allies, Russia and Iran. Since Russia’s military intervention in September 2015, Assad has managed to either retain or recapture most major population centers in the country encompassing so-called ‘Useful Syria’—including Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo and Latakia. It most recently broke the ISIS siege on Deir Ezzor, paving the way for further gains in the city and its surrounding areas, leading to the Iraqi border town of Al-Bukamal.
Iran Poised to Test More Ballistic Missiles in Defiance of International Demands
Iran’s leaders reiterate that the Islamic Republic will not negotiate over its controversial missile program despite mounting international pressure. Abbas Araghchi, deputy foreign minister of Iran, said the country will continue to test new ballistic missiles as planned. “Iran’s missiles exist with full force. And when needed, missile tests will be carried out. And if necessary, Iran will launch missile attacks as it did against Daesh [ISIS in Syria],” he added.
Iranian Leaders Say Israel's "Demise" Sooner after Trump's Jerusalem Plan
The chairman of Iran’s Assembly of Experts has said that President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will mark the demise of Israel, according to the Iranian media.
I.R.G.C. May Seek to Expand Military Role beyond Syria and Iraq, Warns Reformist Daily
As the battle against ISIS is winding down in Iraq and Syria, some military leaders and hardliners in Iran call for not only keeping a long-term military presence in both countries but also expand the country’s “military advisory missions” to other conflict zones in the region, including Yemen and Palestine, warns reformist Iranian daily Bahar.
I.R.G.C.'s Khatam al-Anbia Eyes Leading Role in Syria’s Reconstruction
The head of Khatam al-Anbia Construction Base, the main engineering and construction arm of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), has said that the conglomerate is ready to play a leading role in Syria’s reconstruction process, Tasnim News Agency reported.
The big news in recent days has been President Trump’s very contentious decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. It was a decision roundly condemned by allies in Europe and the Middle East and marks a major shift in U.S. policy. MEI experts Eran Etzion, Yousef Munayyer, and Nathan Stock join host Paul Salem to discuss the fallout.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
