The Other MoU: Launching a Europe-Gulf Resilience Initiative After the US-Iran Deal
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran may have ended one of the most consequential Middle Eastern crises in decades, but it has not resolved the strategic problem it exposed. Whether the 60-day talks it set in motion will produce a final agreement remains far from certain.Yet the central lessons are already clear: Iran has preserved significant leverage, Washington has had to scale back its ambitions, and Europe and the Gulf face the prospect of protracted regional tension. Europe and the Gulf should therefore use the aftermath of the US-Iran deal to articulate their own “other MoU”: a Europe-Gulf Resilience initiative.
A Post-War Model for Verifying Iran’s Missile Arsenal
This study proposes a model for constraining and verifying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal by employing a layered Strategic Verification Model with seven components: comprehensive baseline declarations; missile test and launch monitoring; intrusive inspections; quantitative and qualitative limits on missile capabilities; production controls, especially on solid-fuel manufacturing; a robust enforcement and compliance architecture; and regional confidence building measures.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
This backgrounder provides an overview of how the Abraham Accords came about, the US interests involved, their economic and strategic consequences, and the prospects for further enlargement going forward.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Europe Eyes Further Cooperation with Iran under Rouhani
European leaders welcomed the re-election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani with a sigh of relief. The European Union’s foreign affairs chief, Federica Mogherini, congratulated Rouhani and highlighted the high electoral turnout. It is worth noting that both Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, and Mogherini had developed a good working relationship with Rouhani in face-to-face talks during the Iranian president’s first term.
Informal Networks, Formal Politics and The Politicization of Islam in Indonesia
When Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, the Christian governor of Indonesia’s capital Jakarta, was sentenced to two years in prison for “blasphemy” in May 2017 it created world headlines. The verdict was seen as emblematic of a broader “Islamization” of Indonesian politics and society that has allegedly been underway since the collapse of the New Order military dictatorship in 1998. However, as this essay shows, Indonesia is experiencing a politicization of Islam rather than an Islamization of politics.
William F. Wechsler Joins MEI as Resident Senior Fellow
William F. Wechsler has joined the Middle East Institute as a senior fellow on national security and counterterrorism. Wechsler previously served at the U.S. Department of Defense as deputy assistant secretary for special operations and combating terrorism, and before that as deputy assistant secretary for counternarcotics and global threats.
Iran Denies Saudi Claims about Arrest of I.R.G.C. Members Plotting Attacks
On Tuesday, a senior Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) official refuted claims by Saudi Arabia that it had detained three I.R.G.C. members plotting attacks against the kingdom. “The claim lacks any value … and looks more like a joke,” General Rassoul Sanaeerad, the deputy I.R.G.C. head for political affairs, said in an interview with Tasnim News Agency. He claimed Riyadh was fabricating the allegations for psychological warfare purposes against Iran.
U.S. Shoots Down Second Iran-Made Drone in Southern Syria
An American aircraft today shot down an Iranian-made armed drone approaching U.S.-led coalition forces in southern Syria, the U.S. Central Command said in a statement.
Rouhani Administration Seeks to Expand Iran’s Relations with Africa
The Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to boost its relations with African countries, President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday in a meeting with Benin’s new ambassador to Tehran Naim A
Iran: Missile Strikes in Syria Carry Wider Warning to Regional States and U.S.
On Sunday, the Iranian military said it had launched six missiles at Islamic State positions in Syria in retaliation for the June 7 attacks in Tehran claimed by the terrorist group. A statement by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) confirmed that it fired medium-range missiles from bases in the western Iranian provinces of Kermanshah and Kurdistan and killed a “large number” of Islamic State terrorists in Syria’s Deir Az Zour province.
Monday Briefing: Eastern Syria a Hotbed of Geopolitical Interests
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on eastern Syria as a new hotbed of geopolitical competition, Iranian responses to the Islamic State attack, additional U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and renewed Saudi succession speculation.
I.R.G.C. Claims It Killed Leader of Sunni Militant Group in Southeast Iran
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) announced today that its ground forces have killed the ringleader of a Sunni militant group in Iran’s restive province of Sistan and Baluchestan.
Russia’s claim to have killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an airstrike in Raqqa on May 28 should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. At the time in question, the U.S.-led Syrian Democratic Forces (S.D.F.) were only days away from launching their final assault on the city and there’s no logical reason imaginable why Baghdadi would have risked staying in a surrounded, sitting target. Notwithstanding justified doubts surrounding Baghdadi’s then presence in Raqqa, Russia’s statement also says its strike killed another 330 ISIS fighters – which is almost certainly an absurd claim.
Iran-Backed Forces Link Up along Syrian-Iraqi Border near al-Tanf despite U.S. Warnings
Iranian-supported Shiite militia forces in Iraq and Syria have finally linked up along the shared border between the two countries, Fars News Agency reports.
Top Khamenei Aide Says U.S. Senate Sanctions Bill Violates Nuclear Deal
Iranian officials on Friday reacted angrily to the latest U.S. Senate decision to impose new sanctions against Iran. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior aide to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said the Senate bill was a violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the nuclear accord Iran signed with the United States and five other world powers in July 2015. “The U.S.
Senior Iranian Official Blasts Tillerson’s Remarks about Transition of Power in Iran
Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council, has strongly criticized U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s comments about a peaceful transition of power in Iran.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
William F. Wechsler has joined the Middle East Institute as a senior fellow on national security and counterterrorism. Wechsler previously served at the U.S. Department of Defense as deputy assistant secretary for special operations and combating terrorism, and before that as deputy assistant secretary for counternarcotics and global threats.
