Jordan’s Economy Weathers Iran War’s Shocks and Finds New Opportunities
In the summer of 2003, King Abdullah II told Bloomberg Jordan sits “between Iraq and a hard place,” a play on words designed to describe the kingdom’s challenging environment to an American audience amid the US-led Iraq war to the east and the lingering Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the west. Jordan is grappling with a much “harder place” today.
Gulf Political Economy: The Cost of Accommodating Iran
There may be no near-term resolution to the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The cease-fire and memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed on June 18 have broken down, there is little diplomatic engagement, and new flare-ups in early September indicate a further round of escalation. Gulf states may have no choice but to protect their assets and populations while trying to deter Iran by finding mechanisms of both containment and accommodation.
Gulf Energy Markets: The Region’s Edge Will Survive — At a Price
Across the Gulf, views differ widely on how the Iran war can and should end, and what the region will look like once it does. Yet on the crisis over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the view is near-unanimous that a repeat is not only possible but likely. That expectation, more than any single incident over the past year, is becoming a major driver of decision-making in industry and policy circles alike.
Even though energy production and exports are the lifeblood of all Arab states in the Gulf, the present crisis between Qatar on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt on the other has had very little influence on the economics of oil and gas either internationally or within the region. However, the countries involved have a lot to gain from a resolution of the conflict, particularly if it leads to greater energy market integration.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Bilal Y. Saab provide analysis on Iran’s efforts to stay in Syria, Pompeo’s upcoming trip to Abu Dhabi, the Pakistan Muslim League’s struggle in the upcoming National Assembly elections, and Qatar’s decision to renege on its Russian S-400 purchase.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on the US’s silence amid the Assad regime’s expansion, the Iranian president’s trip to Europe, the uptick in violence after Iraq’s elections, and the upcoming Pakistani parliamentary elections.
The fighter jet that could break US-Turkey defense relations
On Jun. 18, the U.S. Senate voted for the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which proposes blocking the delivery of F-35 combat aircraft to Turkey and advises the removal of Turkey from the 20-year-old international program for joint production of F-35s. This motion was preceded by a May 25 vote in the U.S.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Turkey’s Middle Corridor: “Win-Win Cooperation”?
The launching of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Middle Corridor have provided wider scope and greater potential for China, now the world’s second-largest economy and Turkey, a G20 member, to develop more extensive bilateral trade and investment ties and further advance their respective regional and global aspirations. This article examines the headway that China and Turkey have made and the roadblocks that they have encountered in enhancing their economic relations.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed victory in critical presidential and parliamentary elections on Sunday. The vote grants him five more years in office as well as unprecedented powers in a powerful presidential system. His critics had hoped that this time they had a real shot at defeating the strongman. The notoriously fractured opposition had united to deny the ruling party a parliamentary majority. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), had fielded a firebrand candidate who was determined to reach out well beyond the party’s secularist, nationalist base.
As international companies leave Iran under U.S. pressure, the Iranian government is scrambling to salvage as much foreign investment as possible. The top leadership in Tehran believes the solution is to engage with Russia, China, and the “east” to replace the West’s hesitant commitment to the Iranian market. But this eastward approach is a pipe dream, and there is plenty of history to prove it.
Iran’s Russian desires
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