In Syria’s last opposition stronghold, the worst fears of millions of people are coming true. With the help of brutal Russian airstrikes, Syrian government forces have seized about a third of Idlib Province over the last two months, pushing over 900,000 of the region’s 3.5 million people out of their homes and north toward the nearby Turkish border, where another 800,000 displaced people already live in crude, overcrowded camps.

The current wave of refugees fleeing Idlib, about 80 percent of whom are women and children, is now the largest exodus of Syria’s nine-year conflict. Aid agencies are overwhelmed, and food is scarce. With tent camps and even public buildings near the Turkish border already housing as many refugees as they can hold, 170,000 displaced people have been forced to sleep in unfinished buildings, in fields, or along roads in temperatures that frequently drop below freezing; babies and young children have died of exposure.

A Crisis in the Making

It is clear what will happen if the Syrian army captures these civilians. Tens of thousands will be arrested; many will simply be killed. Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the special UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria have all detailed the atrocities that President Bashar al-Assad’s government has committed against civilians and even aid workers. When Assad’s forces reach the Turkish border, the grim fate of the refugees will be sealed unless Turkey allows them to cross.

But Turkey already hosts 3.6 million Syrians, and its patience is wearing thin. Unable to absorb another wave of refugees on this scale, Turkey has deployed its own troops to Idlib in the hopes of deterring the Syrian advance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to push the Syrian army back to the position it held before this latest round of Idlib fighting began. Russian warplanes control the skies over western Syria, however, and Ankara doesn’t want to confront Moscow alone in Idlib. (NATO, a defensive alliance to which Turkey belongs, won’t support Turkish forces operating outside the country’s borders.) Syrian government forces, backed by Russian aircraft, have already struck Turkish positions, and 13 Turkish soldiers have been killed. Ankara is sending reinforcements, but Turkish troops have acted with relative restraint, allowing the Syrian army to bypass and even surround them as it advanced.

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