After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
The disappearance of journalist and commentator Jamal Khashoggi from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul has sparked the most serious crisis to face relations between the Trump administration and Riyadh. It has also posed a major diplomatic challenge for Turkey’s President Erdogan. MEI’s Jerry Feierstein and Gonul Tol join host Paul Salem to discuss the fallout of this developing crisis and potential tragedy.
Hopes for progress in Yemen have been stymied by setbacks in recent weeks, perpetuating a military and political stalemate. Marcia Biggs, special correspondent for PBS NewsHour, joins guest host Gerald Feierstein to discuss the humanitarian conditions she witnessed on the ground and what the international community can do to help reach a resolution to the crisis.
Earlier last week, Iranian-backed Houthi authorities arrested 24 Baha’is on charges of espionage and apostasy, which are punishable by death. Amongst those arrested are eight women, a teenage girl, and 15 men that hold leadership positions in the Baha’i community in Yemen. The charges – including accusations of being agents for Israel, the U.S., and the U.K –were formalized during their trial, which took place secretly and without a prior notice on September 15. Followers of the faith claim that they have been subjected to increasing harassment since the Houthis’ rise to power in 2014, and they attribute that to Iran’s influence over the rebel movement.
It was a busy week for Middle East policy as President Trump touched on a range of key issues at the United National General Assembly in New York, including Iran sanctions, the intra-GCC dispute, OPEC policy, Saudi domestic reforms, and the Middle East peace process, among others. Gerald Feierstein, MEI’s director for policy research, programs and government relations, and Ahmad Majidyar, director for MEI’s IranObserved program, join host Paul Salem to break down what was said, as well as what issues were left off the agenda.
Bearish and bullish factors are both at play in the global oil market, weighing on prices. The next big date on the calendar is November 4 — the point at which the 180-day wind-down period ends and U.S. sanctions on the Iranian energy sector are to be reinstated. Two days later, the U.S. midterm elections are due to take place.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Jonathan M. Winer, Robert S. Ford, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including political turmoil in Libya, the meeting between Turkey and Russia to discuss the fate of Idlib province, and Iran’s attempts to forge new relationships to offset U.S. sanctions.
A turbulent trial for Tripoli
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Randa Slim, Jean-François Seznec, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including escalating tensions in Idlib, protests in Basra and their implications for Iraqi politics, a Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s loan to help make up for Aramco IPO revenue, and Egypt’s diplomatic outreach to China.
Read the full article on The American Interest.
No Saudi official has been more applauded and vilified at the same time than Mohamed bin Salman, the Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. That is not surprising, given the transformational nature of the project he’s leading at home, which is bound to create both winners—those who wish to open up the kingdom—and losers—those who wish more or less to preserve the status quo.
This paper examines ISIS’s actions, publications, and communications to determine its insurgency strategies and long-term organizational outlook, emphasizing sources that have been largely overlooked by forces fighting the group.
UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths will lead a new round of negotiations next week to attempt to end the long and costly war in Yemen. A new UN report this week that outlines possible war crimes by the parties engaged in the conflict underscores the need to find a resolution. MEI’s Gerald Feierstein, a former U.S. ambassador to Yemen, and Randa Slim, who was a member of the last UN negotiating team on Yemen, join host Paul Salem to assess the prospects for the peace talks.
Read the full article on The American Interest.
As Bahraini government security services cracked down hard on popular protests against the ruling Al-Khalifa family in February 2011, the U.S. Department of Defense quietly considered alternative basing options for the Fifth Fleet, stationed permanently in Bahrain since 1995.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Gonul Tol, Robert S. Ford, Bilal Y. Saab, and Mirette F. Mabrouk provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkey-U.S. cooperation in Syria amid diplomatic tensions, talks between U.S. and Russian officials on Syria policy, the implications of a new Iranian fighter jet, and Egypt’s revitalized work in regional diplomacy.
Last week, major news outlets reported that China National Petroleum Corporation had acquired French oil and gas company Total’s share in the development of Iran’s South Pars gas field, citing an elusive article published by Iranian state news agency IRNA.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
