After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
With the Saudi-led coalition’s offensive operations against the strategic port and city of Hodeidah stalled, eyes are now on UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths as he attempts to negotiate a political resolution. Fatima al-Asrar, senior analyst at the Arabia Foundation, and Sama’a al-Hamdani, director of the Yemen Cultural Institute for Heritage and the Arts, join guest host Gerald Feierstein to assess the state of the four-year-old Yemen conflict and its impact on the Yemeni people.
Even though energy production and exports are the lifeblood of all Arab states in the Gulf, the present crisis between Qatar on the one hand and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt on the other has had very little influence on the economics of oil and gas either internationally or within the region. However, the countries involved have a lot to gain from a resolution of the conflict, particularly if it leads to greater energy market integration.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Bilal Y. Saab provide analysis on Iran’s efforts to stay in Syria, Pompeo’s upcoming trip to Abu Dhabi, the Pakistan Muslim League’s struggle in the upcoming National Assembly elections, and Qatar’s decision to renege on its Russian S-400 purchase.
Will Iran leave Syria?
Robert S. Ford, Senior Fellow
Protests have broken out in Iran’s capital several times in recent weeks, leading to clashes with police and the temporary closure of Tehran’s Grand Bazaar. As with the demonstrations that swept the country earlier this year, these protests focused mainly on Iranians’ economic grievances. MEI’s Alex Vatanka and Ahmad Majidyar join guest host Greg Myre, national security correspondent for NPR, to discuss the factors driving Iran’s economic struggles, and the potential political impact.
While Hezbollah’s military expansion across the Middle East, particularly since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011, has drawn a great deal of attention, the Lebanese organization’s efforts to increase its presence and influence in Africa has largely been overlooked. Nigeria is a case in point. Sources close to Hezbollah say the organization provides ideological and military training to Nigerian Shiites inside Lebanon.
Iranian-supported Iraqi armed factions have dialed up anti-American propaganda and hostile rhetoric against the U.S.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on the US’s silence amid the Assad regime’s expansion, the Iranian president’s trip to Europe, the uptick in violence after Iraq’s elections, and the upcoming Pakistani parliamentary elections.
The decline of the US’s role in Syria
Charles Lister, Senior Fellow
Summary
Since its 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has incited violent, radical, and often sectarian nonstate groups across the Middle East to serve as proxies in its military campaigns to influence regional and international politics. This “proxy model” has become increasingly salient since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and more recently in Iraq and Syria, and is now Iran’s primary tool for advancing its regional intersts.
There are promising signs that the Saudi-backed coalition in Yemen’s assault on the port of Hodeida is opening a window of opportunity for a return to the political process. After a year of stalling, the Houthis have reportedly expressed a willingness to hand over operation of the port to a neutral third party, most likely the U.N. itself. Meanwhile, U.N.
After years of international intervention, ISIS was routed from its Iraqi stronghold in Mosul and from its so-called capital in the Syrian city of Raqqa last year. However, the group remains dangerous both in the region and globally. Charles Lister discusses how ISIS is operating today, and what the international community must do to combat it.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Bilal Y. Saab, Randa Slim, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Washington’s concerns about F-35 sales to Turkey, Iraq’s vote recount amidst mounting violence, and the king of Jordan’s visit to the White House to discuss Trump’s Israeli-Palestinian peace plan.
The US’s F-35 conundrum
Bilal Y. Saab, Director of the Defense and Security Program
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