After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
With Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections nearing, the coalition of Iranian-supported militia groups called Fateh Alliance is confident that it can translate its military gains into a political victory by either winning the premiership or playing kingmaker in the post-election government formation process, according to Tasnim News Agency, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
The commander of the Fatemiyoun Division, an all-Afghan militia unit fighting under the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ leadership in Syria, has rejected media reports that missiles hit its military base near Syria’s northwest over the weekend. “The military base of this Division is near the city of Aleppo. No combatants from this force have been martyred by an attack as reported in the media,” Tasnim News Agency, a Revolutionary Guards mouthpiece, quoted the Afghan Shiite commander as saying in an exclusive interview, without disclosing his name.
In the midst of a series of diplomatic crises in the Gulf region, Oman stands out as a widely-respected regional mediator. The small country has remained neutral and facilitated economic transactions between Qatar and other GCC countries. The Sultanate has used its balanced relationships with all of the major parties both within and outside Yemen to work towards resolving the Yemen conflict. While managing these delicate diplomatic tensions, Oman has also led working groups in China and India on bilateral economic ties as well as maintained cordial relations with Iran.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, W. Robert Pearson, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the escalating deterrence between Israel and Iran, Pompeo’s pressure to resolve the Gulf crisis, Turkey’s increasing isolation, and the Pashtun protests in Pakistan.
This article was first published on Defense One.
The White House last week released a new plan—called “Buy American”—to shore up U.S. arms sales to global friends and allies. It’s borne out of President Donald Trump’s desire, which he articulated during his presidential campaign, to sell more American weapons as a means to boost the U.S. economy and create more jobs.
Iran’s regional militia allies have vowed retaliation for the death of Houthi leader Saleh al-Sammad in Yemen, the Iranian media reported. The Houthi rebels as well as Iran’s regional militia proxies said they would hold not only Saudi Arabia but also the United States accountable for the killing of al-Sammad. The Iraqi Hezbollah said the Houthi leader’s assassination will open a new chapter in the fight against Saudi Arabia, which it said is “mired in the Yemeni quagmire.” It also accused Washington of complicity.
French President Emanuel Macron’s proposal to his US counterpart Donald Trump for a “new deal” with Iran has caused a great deal of anxiety in Tehran. Headlines in the Iranian media today, most in conservative outlets, accused France and Europe of betraying Tehran and siding with Washington. “Europe kneeled down,” read the headline of Vatan-e Emrooz. The paper wrote that the French president was the last ray of hope to save the nuclear accord and convince Trump to stick to the deal rather than scrap it.
Since the ratification of Iraq’s constitution in 2005, Iraq has struggled to interpret clauses 111 and 112, which stipulate that oil is the property of the Iraqi people and its revenues should be shared equitably. Several draft laws on hydrocarbon management, energy sector regulation, and oil revenue distribution have remained stalled because of differences between the federal government and the Kurdistan region over the interpretation of those clauses.
In the latest measure to restrict Internet and disrupt foreign messaging apps, the Iranian government today announced that it has revoked Telegram’s license to host servers inside the country, the Iranian media reported. The Supreme Cyberspace Council, an agency tasked with monitoring and filtering Internet in Iran, said the license cancellation means Telegram, used by more than a half of Iran’s 80 million population, has to transfer all its servers outside Iran, and that all incoming traffic will now have to be channeled through Iran’s gove
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron signaled that they will work on a “new deal” to supplement the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement and address the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missile program and destabilizing role in the region. Tehran’s response was loud and clear: The Islamic Republic will defy Western pressure and will not renegotiate the nuclear deal or make any compromises over its defense programs and regional posture.
Over the last few months, Iran has experienced a series of street protests in rural areas and social arenas once seen as the key support base for the Islamic Republic. Politically active youth are voicing their frustrations with the country’s political, social, and economic prospects. Many of these protests as well as online activism have been met with pushback from conservatives and crackdown from the government.
Iranian leaders on Tuesday said they will defy Western pressure and will not renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear accord Tehran signed with world powers nearly three years ago. Several top Iranian officials also threatened to take drastic measures, including leaving the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), if the Trump administration terminates the nuclear accord and re-imposes sanctions on Tehran. “We increased the cost for the enemy over the past five years. And if the JCPOA collapses, we have a plan.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
