The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf
The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.
Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.
The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict
Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.
A Strategic Conundrum: Pakistan’s Transit Corridor to Iran as Lifeline or Liability
The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz — disruptive to global trade and energy flows, and devastating for debt-burdened economies — has handed Pakistan an unexpected geoeconomic opportunity, one that may persist even if the framework agreement announced on June 14 results in a lasting peace and permanent reopening of the strait. But seizing it will have interlocking consequences for Islamabad’s ties with Tehran, Washington, and the Gulf states.
Iran: What’s Next for US Policy as the Region Seeks to Move On
As the US and Iran move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the war’s real lesson lies in how Gulf states rapidly adapted — building pipelines, ports, and rail to bypass the chokepoint. Washington should seize this momentum, pursuing a “long game” of regional connectivity that serves shared security and economic interests.
Beyond the Malacca Dilemma: China’s Emerging Corridor-Hedging Logic
China’s approach to external connectivity recognizes that different trade routes perform different functions under different political and operational conditions.
China’s Private Security Companies in the Middle East: Commercial Actors, Strategic Tools
Chinese PSCs are state-adjacent actors embedded in China’s overseas economic expansion, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), generating new arenas of US–China security competition in fragile environments.
The Gulf’s Strategic Paradox: Lost Confidence in the US Security Umbrella, Enduring Trust in the Dollar
This essay argues that the current debate about the future of the international monetary system is not really about Gulf currencies, oil pricing, or de-dollarization in the narrow technical sense. It is about something deeper and more important: whether institutional trust can survive when geopolitical certainty is eroding.
Attacked by All Sides Iraq’s New Government Faces Old Problems
After months of deadlock following the November 2025 elections, Iraq’s parliament approved a new government under Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on May 14, 2026 — just as the country has become a battleground in the US-Israel-Iran war. Zaidi inherits a daunting brief: reviving a struggling economy, reining in armed factions, and steering Iraq through a perilous regional landscape. Dr. Renad Mansour, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme and director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, joins host Alistair Taylor to discuss the war’s impact on Iraq — from Iran’s militia networks to the surge of attacks on the Kurdistan region — and how it’s reshaping Baghdad’s ties with Tehran and Washington.
Syria’s Energy Revival and the Gulf’s Strategic Opening
Syria’s shattered energy sector is being rebuilt at a moment of unusual strategic flux across the Middle East, one defined by Iran’s military degradation following sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes in February and March; Russia’s prolonged absorption in its war in Ukraine; and China’s preference for commercial caution over political risk. Together, these shifts have weakened or distracted the external powers that once dominated Syria’s trajectory. The Gulf states have moved in to decisively fill the opening.
Join us to see our latest exhibition, Beyond the Weave: Contemporary Dialogues with AlSadu, at the upcoming First Friday Open House as part of Art Walk Dupont.
A tentative U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding appeared close to completion in late May, but Iran’s decision to suspend indirect talks over Israel’s expanding operations in Lebanon has thrown the process into uncertainty. What had looked like an emerging framework now appears less a pathway to settlement than a reminder of how fragile the ceasefire remains.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
Although Russia has not directly intervened in the US-Israeli war with Iran, the conflict has underscored the nature and extent of its strategic partnership with the Islamic Republic. The Russia-Iran axis poses a real threat to the US and its allies; it demands a coherent and resolute response.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
