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The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf
  • Analysis
  • The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf

    The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.

    Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
  • Analysis
  • Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy

    With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.

    The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict
  • Analysis
  • The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict

    Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.

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    Trump’s Missions Unaccomplished on Foreign Policy
  • Analysis
  • Trump’s Missions Unaccomplished on Foreign Policy

    Three months after the Iran war began, the United States and Iran are engaged in talks aimed at ending the crisis, even as both sides conducted limited military strikes against each other this week and a separate-but-linked conflict between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon continued to escalate.

    The Impact of the Iran War on the Gulf’s Grand AI Plans
    Photo by Ryan Lim / AFP via Getty Images
  • Analysis
  • The Impact of the Iran War on the Gulf’s Grand AI Plans

    When Iranian drone strikes hit two of Amazon’s data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in early March, amid the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, much of the media’s reflex was to declare it the end of the Gulf’s artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions. That read is misguided, and it misses why what Iran was trying to accomplish failed.

    When Will Energy Markets Recover From the Iran War?
  • Podcast
  • When Will Energy Markets Recover From the Iran War?

    Two and a half months into the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, what lessons can markets draw from the resulting global energy shock? Colby Connelly, MEI Senior Fellow, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to assess the crisis’s impact on the energy industry. Together, they examine how producers are responding to the conflict in both the short and long term, how this moment differs from past energy disruptions, and how regional reverberations may shape international energy policies going forward.

    May 21, 2026

    MENA Energy Recap, Q1-2026: Four Lessons From the Return of Tail Risk
    Photo by Elke Scholiers/Getty Images
  • Report
  • MENA Energy Recap, Q1-2026: Four Lessons From the Return of Tail Risk

    This is a special edition of the MENA Energy Recap — a quarterly review of key energy developments that took place in the region from January through March of 2026 and what they signal in the months ahead. For Q1-26, the recap considers some of the long-term implications of the ongoing war in the region, which have caused the largest energy supply disruption in history, and what lessons these events hold for both near- and long-term energy dynamics in both the Middle East and the wider world.

    The shock doctrine of clean energy
  • Commentary
  • The shock doctrine of clean energy

    Few events have so abruptly collapsed the boundary between energy policy and national security as the US–Israel war on Iran that erupted in February 2026. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered what the International Energy Agency described as the largest oil supply shock on record —driving up energy prices, fueling inflation in Europe, and disrupting supply chains worldwide.

    Beyond the Strait of Hormuz: How War Is Redrawing Trade Routes—and Elevating Pakistan
  • Commentary
  • Beyond the Strait of Hormuz: How War Is Redrawing Trade Routes—and Elevating Pakistan

    Pakistan is not merely reacting to the current phase of the 2026 Iran war; it is functioning as a system-adjusting intermediary within a rapidly reordering regional landscape. As established channels of diplomacy, trade, and financial coordination have fractured under wartime pressure, Islamabad has emerged as a critical node through which regional and extra-regional actors are progressively rerouting engagement, commerce, and influence.

    The Houthis
  • Backgrounder
  • The Houthis

    The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.

    May 15, 2026

    Agile Power: The UAE’s External Policy in an Era of Fragmentation
  • Research & Commentary
  • Agile Power: The UAE’s External Policy in an Era of Fragmentation

    The external policy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is increasingly shaped by systemic fragmentation, regional insecurity, and shifting patterns of great-power engagement. In response, Abu Dhabi has moved away from reliance on fixed alignments toward a strategy of strategic diversification across security, economic, and technological domains.

    The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran
  • Commentary
  • The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran

    As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run not by polished diplomats, but by an unlikely figure: a Pakistani general. Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, has quietly become the key intermediary in the U.S.-Iran standoff, managing what may be the most important backchannel between the two sides. The mediation has thrust Pakistan to the center of the crisis while exposing it to enormous risk.

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