The Unavoidable Neighbor: Managing Iran Beyond the War
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent Elections and What They May Mean for the Middle East
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf
The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.
EU-Iran relations: Toward a diplomatic confrontation?
When the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Josep Borrell Fontelles, took office in December 2019, he emphasized the need to preserve the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and cooperate with Iran. At the same time, he criticized then-U.S. President Donald Trump for maintaining extended sanctions — which in practice prevented leading European firms from concluding large contracts with partners in Iran — and for the U.S.’s withdrawal from the provisions of the treaty.
Although it has been more than 18 months since Iraq’s October 2019 protests, many of the big questions raised remain unanswered, most of which revolve around the sustainability of the post-2003 political system and its ability to correct itself over time.
في عام 2003 ، بعد الإطاحة بنظام صدام حسين ، كان لدى العراقيين آمال كبيرة في إحداث تغيير جوهري في حياتهم بعد ثلاثة عقود ونصف من الاستبداد. لكن في السنوات التي تلت ذلك ، لم تتحقق الكثير من هذه التوقعات.
The future of Javad Zarif: A foreign asset in waiting
A leaked recording of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif criticizing the role and influence of the regime’s ideological army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its late leader, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, has been making the rounds in international and Iranian media. For Zarif, the Islamic Republic’s shrewdest political mind, who once said he “ensures the details of private meetings are not disclosed,” the recording, of a three-hour interview in March with the journalist Saeed Leylaz, was extremely frank and generous in detail. The timing of the leak also appears to be key.
“إذا كان الاجتماع الإيراني السعودي في بغداد نتيجة دبلوماسية عراقية قديرة وذكية، فإن مأساة المستشفى هي نتيجة للفساد المستشري في الطبقة السياسية وثقافة الإفلات من العقاب”.
Iran’s pre-election social media buzz: Toward avoiding a repeat of 2020
Iran’s presidential election is set to be held in less than two months, but the dynamics in the country’s domestic politics have changed significantly compared to 2017. The parliamentary elections of February 2020 saw the lowest voter turnout since the 1979 revolution, with only about 40% of Iranians casting a vote. Now, with the June presidential elections on the horizon, Tehran fears a repeat.
Expert Views: The Biden administration and the Middle East: Reflecting on the first 100 days
At the end of Joe Biden’s first 100 days as president of the United States, where do things stand when it comes to U.S. policy toward the Middle East and North Africa? We asked experts and scholars from across MEI to weigh in with their thoughts on the changes we’ve seen so far, the new challenges that have emerged, and what we know about the administration’s key priorities for the region.
The new wave of normalization in Turkey’s Middle East foreign policy
In the past several weeks, news has been coming out of Ankara regularly about normalization in relations with countries with which Turkey has had problematic relationships for some time.
The Roadblocks to a Regional Security Dialogue in the Middle East
It’s easy to see why there’s an enduring attraction for a regional security dialogue in the Middle East. Countries in the region face shared and borderless challenges — including terrorism, insurgency, environmental safety, arms races, cybersecurity, maritime piracy, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction — that can be dealt with more effectively through multilateral measures.
Making sense of the Iran-China strategic agreement
The 25-year agreement between Iran and China that made headlines this past month is far from new. It was first announced in 2016 during a state visit by President Xi Jinping to Tehran, at a time when sanctions on Iran were being lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Chinese and Iranian officials have been working out the details of the deal ever since as part of a slow process of consultation and negotiations. The timing of the latest announcement about the agreement is, therefore, less about developments in relations between Beijing and Tehran and more about the fast-deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington. China is looking to identify areas where it can cultivate leverage, and Iran is a prime opportunity.
What does the transition in Chad mean for Middle Eastern regional powers?
On April 20, Chadian President Idriss Déby was killed by Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) rebels in the country’s northwestern Tibesti region. The sudden death of Déby, who seized power in Chad via a military coup in December 1990 and was re-elected on April 11 with 79.3% of the vote, risks plunging Chad into a state of prolonged instability.
Peacebuilding in the Time of War: Tribal Cease-fire and De-escalation Mechanisms in Yemen
As the current U.N.-led political negotiations between the Yemeni government and the Houthis seem to have hit a dead end, there has been growing interest in exploring the role tribal leaders and local tribes can play in ending Yemen’s conflict. The role of Yemeni tribes, however, remains largely misunderstood, and the authority of tribal leaders and the influence of tribes on national political decision making are often overestimated. This report looks into the possibilities and limitations of tribal mediation on de-escalation and cease-fire. It argues that while the tribes developed relatively effective mechanisms to limit the spread of violence into their areas, there are major limitations to their ability to mediate the national-level and political conflict.
The challenge of overfishing in Iran’s Gulf waters
Overfishing in the Gulf waterway is an acute problem, and Iran and China might not be enforcing proper restrictions on commercial trawlers. In recent years, the introduction of industrial-scale fishing has harmed local fishermen off the coast of Iran. Equipped with sonar systems, commercial trawlers are responsible for a 50% decline in yields for local fishermen in the past five years.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
