After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Yousef Munayyer, Charles Lister, Charles Schmitz, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Barzani’s decision to step down from the KRG, the Trump administation’s silent response to Israeli settlement expansion in Jerusalem , the Armed Syrian Opposition’s attendance of the seventh round of Astana Talks, Saudi foreign minister blaming Iran for lack of progress in peace talks in Yemen, and President Rouhani’s failure to advance the reform cause in Iran.
Defying U.S. pressure, Iranian leaders said on Monday that they would not allow international inspectors to visit the country’s military sites. Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting with visiting chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency Yukiya Amano in Tehran, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, claimed that there are no provisions within the 2015 nuclear agreement or in the Additional Protocol that would obligate Tehran to permit foreign inspection of its military installations.
The heads of Iran’s executive, legislative and judicial branches met today to discuss how Iran should respond to the Trump administration’s aggressive policy vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic. In the meeting, President Hassan Rouhani, Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani and Judicary Chief Sadegh Larijani focused on the latest U.S. sanctions and their impact on the country’s economy. Rouhani said the United States is “plotting” to undermine the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement Iran signed with world powers in July 2015.
Leaders of Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) rushed to defend Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the paramilitary forces’ chief operational commander, after U.S. State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert called Muhandis a “terrorist” at a press briefing on Thursday. “These remarks indicate a direct threat to Muhandis’ life and we hold America responsible for any attempt or harm to the life of the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces,” P.M.F.
The chief operational commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) issued a statement yesterday outlining plans for the paramilitary forces and Iraqi troops to liberate the towns of Rawa and al-Qaim on the Euphrates River in western al-Anbar Province near the border with Syria. “We seek to lock down the entire Iraqi-Syrian border from north to south,” the statement said. In an interview with the Lebanese al-Mayadeen news outlet earlier today, P.M.F.
Senior Iranian clerics on Friday backed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s earlier remarks that Iran’s defense capabilities, including its controversial missile program, are non-negotiable. During their Friday prayer sermons, the clerics emphasized that the Islamic Republic will defy international pressure and continue to further enhance its military assets. They also encouraged worshippers to participate in the upcoming National Day against Global Arrogance to condemn the Trump administration’s anti-Iran policies.
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) announced on Thursday that its forces “dismantled a terrorist team” in Chaldaran region of northwestern Azerbaijan Province. According to a statement released by the public relations department of I.R.G.C.’s Hamze Sayyid al-Shohada Base, four “terrorists’ were killed in armed clashes between I.R.G.C. forces and the militants.
In their new report for the Atlantic Council, “U.S. Strategy Options for Iran’s Regional Challenge,” and an essay version published in the Washington Quarterly, Bilal Saab and Kenneth M. Pollack lay out a “pushback” strategy to weaken Iran’s regional influence. The co-authors join host Paul Salem to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of this and other strategies in this week’s podcast.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi today in Tehran that he should not trust the United States as a reliable partner in the fight against terrorism, the Iranian media reported. “The Americans themselves created Daesh [Islamic State]. But now that the terrorists are defeated by the Iraqi government and people, they pretend to be supportive and helpful.
Defying U.S. pressure, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated on Wednesday that the country’s defense capabilities and assets are non-negotiable, Tasnim News Agency reported.
Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia group, said today that the United States and its regional allies created the Islamic State three years ago to destabilize Iraq and Syria. A statement released by the group claimed that “heroes of the Hezbollah Brigades had the privilege of firing the first shots at the U.S.
The 2003 ouster of the Saddam regime and the emergence of the Islamic State in 2014 in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal helped Iran to become the most influential foreign power in Iraq. However, there is a growing concern in Tehran that the latest U.S.-backed diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia to forge close ties with the Iraqi government and Shiite leaders may undercut Iranian influence in Iraq.
After a long period of disengagement, Saudi Arabia is improving its relations with the Iraqi government and Shiite leaders to challenge Iran’s long-established influence in the country. Riyadh has recently hosted several Iraqi leaders for talks, including Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Interior Minister Qasim Mohammad Jalal al-Araji, and Muqtada al-Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric and politician.
Iran will launch a satellite called Sharif-Sat into orbit this year, the Iranian media reported today.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
