After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
Regional Cooperation Series
This Policy Paper is part of The Middle East Institute’s Regional Cooperation Series. Throughout 2016, MEI will be releasing several policy papers by renowned scholars and experts exploring possibilities to foster regional cooperation across an array of sectors. The purpose is to highlight the myriad benefits and opportunities associated with regional cooperation, and the high costs of the continued business-as-usual model of competition and intense rivalry.
Summary
This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”
Philip Gordon, a former Middle East policy adviser in the White House, likes to say that President Barack Obama learned three lessons from the region’s unending turmoil.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Randa Slim, Paul Salem, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including Tuesday’s meeting of the International Syria Support Group in Vienna, the death of Hezbollah senior leader Mustafa Badreddine, the global Refugee Summit to be held in Istanbul, and Indian PM Modi’s upcoming visit to Iran.
This paper is part of a MEI scholar series titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections.”
Introduction
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Charles Schmitz, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent events including the Syrian cease-fire, Al-Qaeda losses in Yemen, and Iran’s parliamentary elections.
Cease-fire Dead in Syria
Charles Lister, Resident Fellow
This essay examines China-Iran trade relations, as well as Chinese investments in Iran. Particularly, it asks whether the Chinese-Iranian stated ambition to increase the value of bilateral trade to $600 billion within a decade is attainable. Additionally, it identifies the factors responsible for the trade deficit in Iran’s favor, and shows that the pace of China’s foreign direct investment (F.D.I) in Iran is slowing in spite of absolute increases.
The threat of militant extremism among Iran’s Sunnis is being taken very seriously in Tehran. Iranian authorities have been exerting considerable effort to stem the spread of Salafism and Wahhabism into Iran’s mainly Hanafi Sunni majority regions. One strategy that authorities are not pursuing, however, is development. Indeed, the continued underdevelopment of these regions is leaving the door open to radical Islam. Iran’s Sunnis have long struggled with poverty and discrimination, and are suspiciously viewed as the country’s fifth column.
This article was first published on Foreign Affairs.
Read the full article on the Washington Post.
The stunning performance of Iran’s moderate forces in the Feb. 26 elections has prompted new optimism for democracy in the Islamic Republic. It should not.
At the edge of the Pacific, in a bucolic suburb of Vancouver called Horseshoe Bay, the “father of modern Iranian sculpture” has lived a quiet existence since 1989.
Despite being a pioneer of Iranian modernism and one of the founders of the Saqqakhaneh School of Art in mid-20th century Tehran, Parviz Tanavoli has been virtually invisible in Vancouver.
Today, however, a new documentary about the artist directed by Canadian filmmaker Terrence Turner has bridged the chasm between the Middle East and the Pacific Northwest.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, and David Mack provide analysis on recent events including the ceasefire agreement in Syria, Iran’s elections, and how the United States should respond to the growing threat of ISIS in Libya.
On the Syria Ceasefire
Robert S. Ford
Senior Fellow
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