After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
In an interview with a state-run Iranian TV channel, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said that the evolving dynamics in southern and northern Syria would not alter “strategic” relations between Damascus and Tehran and emphasized that his government would be open to permitting Iran to establish military bases on the Syrian soil if needed. “After the liberation of Ghouta, a plan to advance toward southern Syria was discussed.
As international companies leave Iran under U.S. pressure, the Iranian government is scrambling to salvage as much foreign investment as possible. The top leadership in Tehran believes the solution is to engage with Russia, China, and the “east” to replace the West’s hesitant commitment to the Iranian market. But this eastward approach is a pipe dream, and there is plenty of history to prove it.
Iran’s Russian desires
The Middle East is going nuclear, and not just Iran. As several countries across the region pursue nuclear programs to meet soaring domestic energy demands, the risk of nuclear proliferation also increases. MEI’s Bilal Saab explains the security risks.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened Iran with the “strongest sanctions in history” following the U.S. exit from the nuclear deal and outlined twelve demands as conditions for striking a new treaty between the two countries. MEI’s Rauf Mammadov and Ahmad Majidyar join Paul Salem to discuss the implications of this policy and take a closer look at Iran’s oil and energy sector amid the sanction threats.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Ahmad Majidyar, Alex Vatanka, Jean-François Seznec, Gerald Feierstein, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Gonul Tol, and Randa Slim provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Europe’s scramble to salvage the Iran nuclear deal following the U.S. withdrawal, Iran’s response to Russia’s call for all foreign forces to leave Syria, a meeting by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia to discuss the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran, the arrest of women’s rights activists in Saudi Arabia, new political tensions in Pakistan, a push in the U.S.
Opinions about the consequences of the U.S. pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal began flying around as soon as President Donald Trump announced the exit.
Many of the key points that pundits have made about Washington turning its back on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action have dealt with oil. That’s because the U.S. is likely to sanction Iranian oil exports again, as it did during the Obama administration.
Here are several short-term and long-term consequences of the U.S. about-face on the Iran deal:
Short-term consequences
Firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s surprising lead in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections has raised alarm in Tehran. The Iranian press expressed the concern that Sadr would seek to undercut the Islamic Republic’s influence in Iraq by marginalizing Iran’s allies and allowing regional Sunni countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to make inroads into Iraqi politics and economy at the expense of Tehran’s interests.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry today rejected a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin that all foreign troops should leave Syria after intra-Syrian peace process begins, the Iranian media reported. No one can force Iran to do anything. Iran is an independent country, which determines its own policies. “Iran’s presence is based on the Syrian government’s invitation, and its objective is to fight terrorism and defend Syria’s territorial integrity,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi said at a press briefing in Tehran.
The secretary-general of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, an Iranian-supported Iraqi militia group, has threatened that its forces will fight Israel to seize Jerusalem, according to Shafaaq, an Arab outlet.
With Afghanistan’s western Farah Province on the verge of falling to the Taliban, Afghan officials and tribal leaders in the province accuse neighboring Iran and Pakistan of aiding the insurgents for political and economic ends.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Nathan Stock, Alex Vatanka, Ruba Husari, and Gonul Tol provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the fallout from President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, Iran’s diplomatic efforts with Europe to keep the nuclear deal alive, how Iran’s other trading partners are responding to U.S. warnings of sanctions, and Britain’s efforts to cultivate closer ties with Turkey.
Key points
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
