Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.
Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of US weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.
A moment of reckoning as the US and Iran prepare to resume talks in Doha
After a three-month-long suspension of the nuclear talks in Vienna, the U.S. and Iran appear set to resume diplomatic negotiations on June 28 in Doha, Qatar. While it is too early to be optimistic about the outcome, the Iranians and the Americans both seem to believe the talks in Doha represent a sink-or-swim moment for U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.
حزب الله الحجاز: جماعة شيعية سعودية يكتنفها الغموض
تهدف هذه الورقة البحثية إلى مقاربة النفوذ الإيراني داخل المجتمع الشيعي في السعودية من خلال التركيز على أتباع مرجعية المرشد الأعلى والمعروفين بـ “خط الإمام” والجناح العسكري المنسوب للتيار والمعروف دوليًا بـ “حزب الله الحجاز” أو “حزب الله السعودي” والذي تتوجه له أصابع الاتهام بتنفيذ تفجير الخبر ١٩٩٦.
Hezbollah Al-Hejaz: A Saudi Shi’a Group Cloaked in Mystery
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Saudi Arabia has been concerned about the potential influence of Iran’s supreme leader among its Shi’a population, especially since Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei took on the title of Vali-ye faqih, or “guardian-jurist.” Such concern is understandable given that the two countries are both neighbors and rivals: Khamenei is a marj’a, the highest-ranking Shi’a religious authority, but he is also the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Armed Forces. This paper aims to investigate the Iranian influence within the Shi’a community in Saudi Arabia by focusing on the followers of the supreme leader’s marj’aiyyah, known as “Khat al-Imam,” and its military wing, “Hezbollah Al-Hejaz,” often held responsible for carrying out the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing.
Staying the course … for now: Germany’s MENA policy under the Scholz government
After 16 years under Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz’s assumption of Germany’s chancellorship on Dec. 8, 2021 marked a new chapter in the nation’s politics. Within the “traffic light” coalition government formed by the Social Democrats, the Free Democratic Party, and the Greens, Annalena Baerbock heads the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Before taking office, the co-leader of Alliance 90/The Greens was known for both her welcoming attitude toward immigrants and her full-throated condemnation of human rights violations by authoritarian governments. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has no shortage of the latter: According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, 17 out of the 20 countries in the region are “authoritarian” and not one is characterized as a “full democracy.” Beyond human rights, other key MENA policy issues for the new government include Iran, Turkey, ongoing conflicts in the region, and immigration. The challenges are numerous, if well-known, but how will Berlin respond? Is Germany’s policy toward MENA likely to change or remain the same under the new government?
Canada-Iran soccer row highlights the ongoing fight over Flight 752
The international friendly soccer match scheduled to take place between the Canadian and Iranian men’s national teams on June 5 was canceled in the face of widespread opposition from the families of the Canadians killed in the downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 by the IRGC. The Canadian government has called the January 2020 shootdown of PS752, which killed 55 Canadian citizens and 30 permanent residents, a “national tragedy” and the decision to cancel the match should serve as a reminder that the Iranian regime has been unresponsive to the demands of the PS752 families.
Pahlavi address highlights growing disillusionment with Iran’s leadership and the search for alternatives
The June 3 address by Reza Pahlavi, son of the last shah, to the people of Iran was bad news for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In his live televised speech, Reza Pahlavi made several accusations against the current leadership of Iran, and judging from their reaction, it has put Iranian officials on edge.
Amid dust storms and drought, Turkey and Iran are at odds over transboundary water management
Water is slowly emerging as yet another potential cause for dispute between Ankara and Tehran. As of late, the two neighboring states have been at loggerheads over a number of issues, including Syria and Iraq, where they have opposing interests. After years of quiet diplomatic juggling, the issue of transboundary water management is gradually taking center stage in the two countries’ relations, a development that could, in the medium run, have serious repercussions for regional security.
The impact of the war in Ukraine on regional cooperation in the South Caucasus
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus has been unable to find a model for regional cooperation or form regional organizations. The relative calm that followed the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, especially after the signing of the November 2020 cease-fire agreement, renewed hopes that this might change. Significant challenges to regional cooperation remain, however, and Russia’s war with Ukraine has only complicated matters further.
A country in free fall, a corruptocracy in full swing: Why a building collapse in Iran matters
On May 23, 2022, Metropol tower, a 10-story commercial building in the city of Abadan in Iran’s oil-rich southwestern Khuzestan Province, collapsed, killing at least 41 people and trapping dozens more beneath the rubble. For an outside observer, this might seem like a tragic but random accident that could have happened anywhere. In reality, it is a stark illustration of a country mired in corruption and mismanagement.
On May 17, 2022, Iran inaugurated a drone factory in neighboring Tajikistan, its first drone production facility abroad. With this factory, Iran intends to reinforce bilateral relations and reduce recent tensions with Tajikistan, address shared security concerns on the Afghan border, boost profits in a growing export market, and complicate Israeli efforts to further sabotage its drone program.
Protecting Gulf waters through regional cooperation
In collaboration with regional and international experts and organizations, the Middle East Institute is implementing a program aimed at promoting regional approaches to solve climactic and anthropogenic challenges to the waters of the Gulf.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
