Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.
Many of the immediate consequences of the Israeli-American war with Iran are already clear. The further emergence of drones and missiles as dominant weapons of war; the danger to the global economy from the threats to vital chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb; and the inadequacy of US weapons procurement, among other issues, have garnered widespread and entirely merited attention.
Three months after the Iran war began, the United States and Iran are engaged in talks aimed at ending the crisis, even as both sides conducted limited military strikes against each other this week and a separate-but-linked conflict between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon continued to escalate.
The Impact of the Iran War on the Gulf’s Grand AI Plans
When Iranian drone strikes hit two of Amazon’s data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in early March, amid the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, much of the media’s reflex was to declare it the end of the Gulf’s artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions. That read is misguided, and it misses why what Iran was trying to accomplish failed.
When Will Energy Markets Recover From the Iran War?
Two and a half months into the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, what lessons can markets draw from the resulting global energy shock? Colby Connelly, MEI Senior Fellow, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to assess the crisis’s impact on the energy industry. Together, they examine how producers are responding to the conflict in both the short and long term, how this moment differs from past energy disruptions, and how regional reverberations may shape international energy policies going forward.
Few events have so abruptly collapsed the boundary between energy policy and national security as the US–Israel war on Iran that erupted in February 2026. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered what the International Energy Agency described as the largest oil supply shock on record —driving up energy prices, fueling inflation in Europe, and disrupting supply chains worldwide.
Beyond the Strait of Hormuz: How War Is Redrawing Trade Routes—and Elevating Pakistan
Pakistan is not merely reacting to the current phase of the 2026 Iran war; it is functioning as a system-adjusting intermediary within a rapidly reordering regional landscape. As established channels of diplomacy, trade, and financial coordination have fractured under wartime pressure, Islamabad has emerged as a critical node through which regional and extra-regional actors are progressively rerouting engagement, commerce, and influence.
Agile Power: The UAE’s External Policy in an Era of Fragmentation
The external policy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is increasingly shaped by systemic fragmentation, regional insecurity, and shifting patterns of great-power engagement. In response, Abu Dhabi has moved away from reliance on fixed alignments toward a strategy of strategic diversification across security, economic, and technological domains.
The Pakistani General Running Washington’s Backchannel to Tehran
As Washington and Tehran edge closer to escalation, the most critical line of communication keeping the crisis from spiraling is being run not by polished diplomats, but by an unlikely figure: a Pakistani general. Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief, has quietly become the key intermediary in the U.S.-Iran standoff, managing what may be the most important backchannel between the two sides. The mediation has thrust Pakistan to the center of the crisis while exposing it to enormous risk.
The Hormuz Crisis and China’s Energy Security Dilemma
Despite sustained efforts to prioritize energy security across successive policy cycles, China remains exposed to external supply chains it does not control. The core problem is not simply import dependence, but reliance on maritime transit routes – particularly through the Strait of Hormuz – whose security ultimately lies beyond Beijing’s authority. The escalation of the Israel-U.S. war with Iran and the resulting disruption of traffic through Hormuz has transformed a long-recognized strategic risk into an immediate constraint, revealing the limits of China’s ability to ensure stable energy access under conditions of geopolitical contestation.
Trump Planned for Pressure on Iran, but Not the Global and Domestic Blowback
The limelight for American foreign policy shifts to Beijing this month, where US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet on May 14-15 to address a long list of unresolved issues. But the Iran war and still unfolding geo-economic calamity resulting from it cast a long shadow. One thing to watch for is whether China or the US feels like it has a stronger hand in light of recent events in the Middle East.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
