Trump at war with Iran: Regime change, risk, and the hidden battle inside Tehran
The United States is now at war with Iran, or at least something dangerously close to it. The June 21 US strikes on key Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including the underground Fordow facility, marked a dramatic escalation. Yet Washington has carefully avoided calling this a full-scale war.
US has an opening to force concessions from Iran in a potential deal
As the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, warnings are growing louder that the war could result in hazardous and destructive radiological spillover to much of the region. But the posturing of various key actors in the Gulf and beyond has opened the door to a broader political settlement between the United States and Iran that could end the hostilities before such a dangerous scenario comes to pass.
As the war between Iran and Israel continued, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on June 17, framing the conflict as an “imposed war” and calling for national unity. But instead of using this moment to explore diplomatic off-ramps, particularly as President Donald Trump signaled the possible direct participation of the United States in the war on the side of Israel, Khamenei opted for posturing over negotiation and left the Iranian people even more fearful about the future.
President Donald Trump threatens Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But measured language and disciplined policy can help prevent escalation and protect American interests.
The real threat from Iran: Tehran’s most dangerous option for responding to Israel
Last night, the government of Israel decided to roll the dice on a military solution to Iran’s decades-long pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability. Given the remarkable capabilities of the Israel Defense Forces, the operation could do tremendous damage to the Iranian nuclear program. But then comes the hard part.
Don’t trust Erdogan’s "peace process" with the Kurds
After decades of repression, many of Turkey’s Kurds are hopeful that their long struggle for basic rights may finally be nearing a breakthrough. That hope is fueled by newly launched talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s nationalist coalition and the imprisoned leader of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan. The talks have already produced the historic declaration by the PKK to disband and renounce armed struggle. Pro-Kurdish politicians have praised Erdogan’s efforts to pursue a peaceful solution.
When U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly appointed special envoy to Syria, Thomas Barrack, paid his first visit to Damascus on May 29, he flew into the country on U.S. military helicopters from Jordan. He was accompanied by two State Department staff members but was most closely flanked by the U.S. military’s counter-Islamic State coalition leaders—Maj. Gen. Kevin Leahy and Brig. Gen. Michael Brooks.
In Syria’s fragile transition there’s a glimmer of a more stable Middle East
For the better part of half a century, Syria has been an open wound in the heart of the Middle East, provoking instability, fueling conflict, and brutally suppressing its own people. Throughout Syria’s nearly fourteen-year civil crisis, a long list of destabilizing knock-on effects spilled over into neighboring countries and the world at large. The long-standing moniker of “what happens in Syria never stays in Syria” perfectly encapsulated what for most of the past decade looked to be a truly intractable crisis.
The long-term challenges of reconstruction in the Middle East
Reconstruction projects will not be able to rely solely on direct grants and loans. Recovering economies will have to create conditions to attract regional and international investment as well.
President Trump’s recent visit to the Gulf region marked a dramatic shift from the previous administration’s Middle East diplomacy. In his visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, Trump focused on securing significant investment commitments and commercial partnerships to support the region’s AI and other ambitions.
How Trump's Gulf visit could transform the Middle East
In addition to the many trade and business deals, and the significant political announcements made during Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf, the trip itself marks an important shift in the geopolitical landscape.
As a scholar of Turkey, I spent years watching President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rise—and, I’ll admit, I once believed in the promise. I had reservations about his Islamist roots, but his vows to fight corruption, reduce poverty, and expand freedoms seemed like the antidote to Turkey’s democratic fragility. For a moment, it felt like real progress.
Since mid-April, diplomacy between Tehran and Washington has shifted into overdrive. After a seven-year freeze, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has made a stunning, if not entirely surprising, reversal: He has greenlit a new nuclear deal if U.S. President Donald Trump accepts Tehran’s basic red lines. While the fourth round of talks between the two countries last weekend in Oman contained no apparent breakthrough, both sides seem determined to continue negotiating.
Trade Tensions, Oil Sanctions, and the Future of Middle East Oil
For oil producers in the Middle East, mounting external pressure from trade tensions, tariffs, and oil sanctions presents headwinds to government revenue and regional stability. Oil production is becoming a battle for market share rather than a collective effort to increase prices.
