The decision U.S. President Donald Trump made to attack Iran was a high-stakes gamble. The gamble is not really in the military campaign itself. It is whether a massive air campaign can trigger a popular rebellion that takes down the regime in Tehran. This could pay off brilliantly, but it could also fail miserably.
The Kurdish Card: Can Iranian Kurds Shape the War’s Endgame?
The war against Iran has entered its third week with no clear endgame—and no clear strategy from Washington.
At one point President Trump appeared to encourage Iranian Kurdish groups to rise up against the regime, before quickly walking it back. Meanwhile, some exiled Kurdish opposition figures say they already have an invasion plan and only need US air cover.
The Kurdish question is once again at the center of regional politics. In this episode, we examine the role of Iranian Kurds in the opposition—and what this moment could mean for their future.
If the Regime Survives: Iran War Raises the Ante for US, Israel
The United States and Israel both hope for the grand prize: the emergence of a new regime in Iran to replace the Islamic Republic. For the US, this would close the chapter on a hostile and at times violent relationship that has endured since 1979. For Israel, this would see the end not only of a regime with a deep ideological commitment against it but also the foe that Israel sees as behind all fronts of the war it has fought since October 7, 2023.
How the US and Israel Can Stave off Strategic Failure in Iran
Despite a dazzling military onslaught, an Iranian regime that faces a threat to its very existence is demonstrating an entirely predictable willingness to stay the course at all costs. As things stand now, the joint US-Israeli war risks ending in military victory but becoming a strategic failure.
Shockwaves Across Asia: The Iran War’s Strategic Fallout
The Israeli-U.S. military strikes on Iran that began on February 28 have done more than ignite a Middle Eastern war. They have sent shockwaves rolling across Asia, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Sea of Japan, exposing the brittle underpinnings of regional energy systems, straining diplomatic balancing acts, and forcing governments to make hard choices they have long deferred.
Nearly two weeks into the US and Israel’s war with Iran, MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to explore the impact of the widening regional conflict on Turkey. On March 9, Ankara announced that NATO air defenses shot down a second Iranian ballistic missile that had entered Turkish airspace since the start of the war and stated it would take all necessary defensive measures. Turkey is now caught in the middle of an escalating conflict that could pose risks to the country’s security, economy, and foreign policy. Tol, Taylor, and Czekaj discuss what a prolonged regional conflict could mean for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, his regional political objectives, and Turkey’s relationship with key Middle Eastern neighbors.
Iran’s insurance policy: Why the Houthis have stayed out of the fight
Nearly two weeks into the Iran war, one of Tehran’s most capable and disruptive regional allies, Yemen’s Houthi movement, has not entered the fight. The Houthis’ restraint reflects a strategic calculation by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Turkey caught in the vortex of a widening Iran war
After months of trying to head off a US-Israeli war with Iran, Turkey now finds itself caught in the middle of it — and deeply concerned that a prolonged, regionalized conflict could pose serious security, economic, and political risks.
Intelligence questions as the war with Iran enters a more uncertain phase
Following the tactical surprise of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a crucial next step is the assessment of judgments about Iranian military sustainability, regime cohesion, escalation dynamics, regional spillover, allied responses, and plausible end states, and how those judgments interact with allied positioning, diplomatic activity, and economic constraints.
How to prevent the Iran war from becoming a vortex that draws in more countries
By attacking Iran without clear objectives or an exit strategy, the US and Israel turned what was the greatest strategic and chronic threat to regional security into an unpredictable set of imminent dangers. A fundamental task for US national security is to prevent this conflict from becoming a vortex that increasingly pulls in other powers.
Is Turkey the New Iran — Or Is that the Wrong Question?
The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting. Iran is on the defensive — its military capabilities were badly degraded by last year’s 12 days of Israeli and US strikes, and growing protests at home have made the regime look more vulnerable than it has in years.
How Lebanon’s authorities can keep the Iran war from engulfing the country
Today’s decision taken by the Lebanese government — to declare all of Hizballah’s security and military activities illegal — is a landmark development. But how the government and the Lebanese Armed Forces implement this directive now that a new round of attacks has actually taken place will be the ultimate test of their credibility.
On February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran. MEI defense experts weigh in on the military and regional consequences.
Tehran Has Discovered Moscow Is a Fair-Weather Friend
The latest cycle of U.S.-Iran escalation has followed a familiar script: sharpened rhetoric from the United States, calibrated military signaling by Iran in the Persian Gulf, indirect diplomacy through Oman, and Israeli warnings that remain deliberately ambiguous but unmistakably real. Yet beneath this choreography lies a more consequential development inside Tehran. The current crisis is forcing Iran’s political class to reassess its central foreign-policy wager of the past decade: that deepening alignment with Russia and China would provide strategic insulation against Western coercion.
Against the backdrop of one of the largest US military deployments to the Middle East since 2003, MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to assess the situation inside Iran on the eve of potential war. Weeks after the Islamic Republic’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters and as negotiations with the US fail to find common ground, Donald Trump is reportedly weighing options for military action against Iran. Vatanka breaks down the regime’s strategic calculus, the current dynamics of Iran’s opposition movement, and the likely domestic political consequences of a military strike.
