The relative resilience of GCC countries to the Iran crisis
Gulf states — including their national oil companies and sovereign and related entities — are energy giants. They understand the risks of a prolonged threat from Iran and did not choose this war. They also recognize the risks of their geographic location, should the region endure another bout of instability and dislocation from a fragmented and collapsing neighbor.
Is Turkey the New Iran — Or Is that the Wrong Question?
The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting. Iran is on the defensive — its military capabilities were badly degraded by last year’s 12 days of Israeli and US strikes, and growing protests at home have made the regime look more vulnerable than it has in years.
How Iran, China, and Russia Use the Shadow Fleet to Evade US Sanctions
Crude oil legally sanctioned by the United States and its allies today makes up an estimated 18% of global tanker capacity, or 6-7% of total unrefined petroleum flows — shares that have been growing. Increased pressure on Russian exports and US intervention in Venezuela have further constrained Russian flows and temporarily removed Venezuela, the smallest sanctioned producer, from the market. Iranian exports, however, remain largely untouched.
Brian sits down with Holly Dagres, Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to discuss Iranian public opinion and protest movements. Dagres, who was born in Los Angeles and moved to Iran at age thirteen, offers a rare insider perspective on the views and aspirations of the Iranian people. The conversation explores the formative experiences of her teenage years in Iran, the roots of the country’s powerful women’s movements, the power of youth voices, and US policy toward Iran.
Dramatic developments in Syria have delivered a major blow to Kurdish ambitions for self-rule. In a rapid offensive, Damascus moved into northeast Syria, forcing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) out and effectively dismantling the autonomous region the Kurds had built during the civil war.
Syria’s transition still faces a formidable array of challenges — from the implementation of the deal to integrate the SDF into state structures and the military, to the economy, reconstruction, transitional justice and accountability, refugee returns, and geopolitical tensions with Israel. However, a steady and significant decline in violence offers perhaps the most encouraging and consequential metric.
Whenever Iran is shaken by nationwide protests, as it was just last month, analysts and activists are consumed by the same two questions: will the country’s regime finally fall, and what will come next if it does? Answers abound.
From the Middle East to West Asia: Redefining America’s Global Strategy
MEI Senior Fellow Mohammed Soliman joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss his new book, West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East. The book argues that it is time for the United States to move decisively away from nation-building and focus instead on order-building, outlining a framework for a new regional order that links Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Soliman also shares how he conceived of the core ideas behind his book and explains why his thesis is especially relevant in today’s geopolitical, economic, and technological landscape.
Long before the Gaza war erupted in 2023, a broad consensus had already taken hold across policymakers, activists, and foreign-policy circles: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was at a political dead end. The Oslo framework—and the promise of a two-state solution—had steadily lost credibility as a realistic path forward. Since Hamas’s October 7 attacks, the devastation in Gaza and the accelerating realities on the ground have made a two-state outcome even harder to imagine. And yet, it remains the default language of Middle East diplomacy. Most recently, UN Secretary-General António Guterres reaffirmed his determination to oppose Israeli actions undermining the two-state solution and called for renewed momentum toward Palestinian statehood.
Against the backdrop of the Iranian government’s brutal crackdown on protestors, Brian is joined by Emad Shargi, an Iranian-American businessman who was unjustly detained by the regime in 2018 until his release in 2023. Shargi recounts his firsthand experience in the notorious Evin Prison and offers rare insights into the mentality and tactics of the Islamic Republic. He and Brian also discuss his recommendations for US engagement in Iran and his hopes for the country’s future.
Ambiguous Uncertainties: Phase Two of Trump’s Plan for Gaza
MEI Senior Fellow Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss the latest developments in Gaza. Nearly four months after the Israeli government and Hamas agreed to President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, Washington has announced that phase two of the process is now underway. Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, Taylor, and Czekaj examine the humanitarian situation in the devastated coastal strip, assess what phase two could entail, break down how international actors are responding, and explore what would need to happen to realize the plan’s aspirations.
The question facing international oil companies is not whether Libya has oil and gas to develop. It does. The question is whether the country’s current political, economic, and security conditions allow that potential to be converted into reliable returns — and whether near-term changes could alter that calculation.
Brian sits down with Behnam Taleblu, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, to unpack the ongoing protests in Iran and what this moment reveals about the long struggle between the state and the street. They discuss the regime’s brutal crackdown, the prospect of US intervention, and what both could mean for the future of the Islamic Republic. The episode centers on agency, imagination, and the possibilities facing Iranians at a critical juncture in the country’s history.
Iran’s coming reckoning: Regime collapse is likely — democracy is not
The collapse of the Iranian regime in its present form now seems more plausible than its survival as a functioning state. Yet the emergence of a democratic Iran remains far from certain. Between these two outcomes lies a volatile and dangerous middle ground. But much will depend on four factors.
Iran protests seem different. They may lead to real change.
People are not protesting because they suddenly discovered activism. They are protesting because the habits of coping and waiting for conditions to improve have finally stopped working.
