Shockwaves Across Asia: The Iran War’s Strategic Fallout
The Israeli-U.S. military strikes on Iran that began on February 28 have done more than ignite a Middle Eastern war. They have sent shockwaves rolling across Asia, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Sea of Japan, exposing the brittle underpinnings of regional energy systems, straining diplomatic balancing acts, and forcing governments to make hard choices they have long deferred.
Nearly two weeks into the US and Israel’s war with Iran, MEI Senior Fellow Gönül Tol joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to explore the impact of the widening regional conflict on Turkey. On March 9, Ankara announced that NATO air defenses shot down a second Iranian ballistic missile that had entered Turkish airspace since the start of the war and stated it would take all necessary defensive measures. Turkey is now caught in the middle of an escalating conflict that could pose risks to the country’s security, economy, and foreign policy. Tol, Taylor, and Czekaj discuss what a prolonged regional conflict could mean for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, his regional political objectives, and Turkey’s relationship with key Middle Eastern neighbors.
Iran’s Insurance Policy: Why the Houthis Have Stayed out of the Fight
Nearly two weeks into the Iran war, one of Tehran’s most capable and disruptive regional allies, Yemen’s Houthi movement, has not entered the fight. The Houthis’ restraint reflects a strategic calculation by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns: The US-Israeli War on Iran
Modern wars are fought not only with weapons but with assumptions—and the most dangerous assumptions are often invisible to those making them. Donald Rumsfeld’s distinction between known unknowns (questions we recognize but cannot answer) and unknown unknowns (risks we have not even framed as questions) captures something essential about the current confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Turkey caught in the vortex of a widening Iran war
After months of trying to head off a US-Israeli war with Iran, Turkey now finds itself caught in the middle of it — and deeply concerned that a prolonged, regionalized conflict could pose serious security, economic, and political risks.
Intelligence questions as the war with Iran enters a more uncertain phase
Following the tactical surprise of US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a crucial next step is the assessment of judgments about Iranian military sustainability, regime cohesion, escalation dynamics, regional spillover, allied responses, and plausible end states, and how those judgments interact with allied positioning, diplomatic activity, and economic constraints.
How to prevent the Iran war from becoming a vortex that draws in more countries
By attacking Iran without clear objectives or an exit strategy, the US and Israel turned what was the greatest strategic and chronic threat to regional security into an unpredictable set of imminent dangers. A fundamental task for US national security is to prevent this conflict from becoming a vortex that increasingly pulls in other powers.
Is Turkey the New Iran — Or Is that the Wrong Question?
The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting. Iran is on the defensive — its military capabilities were badly degraded by last year’s 12 days of Israeli and US strikes, and growing protests at home have made the regime look more vulnerable than it has in years.
Arming a Kurdish insurgency would be a risky endeavor – for both the US and Iran’s minority Kurds
With the Iranian regime weakened by relentless American and Israeli missiles, Washington is eyeing a familiar U.S. ally in the Middle East to help push the Islamic Republic over the edge: the Kurds.
Partners at war: Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict tests China’s westward strategy
The recent escalation of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict upends China’s westward economic expansion. With neither Pakistan nor Afghanistan willing to subordinate their core security objectives to Beijing’s connectivity agenda, will China find itself unable to push forward on its regional strategy? US academic John Calabrese ponders this quandary.
How Lebanon’s authorities can keep the Iran war from engulfing the country
Today’s decision taken by the Lebanese government — to declare all of Hizballah’s security and military activities illegal — is a landmark development. But how the government and the Lebanese Armed Forces implement this directive now that a new round of attacks has actually taken place will be the ultimate test of their credibility.
On February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran. MEI defense experts weigh in on the military and regional consequences.
As the third and seemingly decisive round of talks in Geneva concluded, the Trump administration had avoided diplomatic deadlock — but only by narrowing negotiations to the nuclear file.
Tehran Has Discovered Moscow Is a Fair-Weather Friend
The latest cycle of U.S.-Iran escalation has followed a familiar script: sharpened rhetoric from the United States, calibrated military signaling by Iran in the Persian Gulf, indirect diplomacy through Oman, and Israeli warnings that remain deliberately ambiguous but unmistakably real. Yet beneath this choreography lies a more consequential development inside Tehran. The current crisis is forcing Iran’s political class to reassess its central foreign-policy wager of the past decade: that deepening alignment with Russia and China would provide strategic insulation against Western coercion.
