Research & Commentary Results

There is currently a discrepancy between the strategic objectives and enabling conditions for solar power in the Gulf and the level of actual deployment. Despite the region’s considerable promise as a potential global leaders in solar power, including one of the world’s highest levels of solar irradiance and strong supporting operating conditions, renewable power accounted for only 2% of generation capacity in 2022.

The hydrocarbon-rich Gulf states are located in the heart of the global sunbelt, endowing them with some of the greatest solar resources in the world. Peak load hours in these countries also align well with daily and seasonal solar radiation levels. Nevertheless, actual deployment of renewable power, including solar, is among the lowest in the world, even though output has increased significantly over the past five years. This paper analyzes why solar power has seen some success in a few states, while in others there has been little momentum.

The Middle East and North Africa is typically viewed from afar as a region of major energy exporters rather than consumers. Consumption patterns vary significantly within the region itself, but a variety of factors warrant giving its energy demand much closer attention than it generally receives on an international level. The range of factors that will determine the changes in demand from every country in the region, each with their respective intricacies, are far too numerous to examine in the space of this study. However, many of the key drivers that are expected to have a broad impact on shaping the evolution of regional demand to the end of the current decade deserve critical review.

The MENA region is set to experience substantial growth in demand for energy during the remaining years of the present decade. Factors driving this growth vary enormously by sub-region and individual country, but there are broad similarities in the forms of both primary and final energy demand growth that are expected to materialize by 2030.

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To abandon the Syria mission now would bring no meaningful benefit to the US, but it would swiftly and significantly empower America’s adversaries, like ISIS, Iran, Russia, and Assad’s regime.

The multiple wars that have erupted since Oct. 7, 2023, have already changed the strategic landscape in the Middle East — and more change is likely to follow.

The Black Sea has recently become one of the world’s most important dynamically shifting geostrategic maritime areas, with Ukraine playing a crucial role in upending the naval balance of power there. Ukraine’s efforts to push back against Russia, bolstered by Western military aid, have challenged the status quo and reshaped the region’s security landscape.

This policy assessment examines the statements and positions staked out by the Harris and Trump campaigns on the Middle East. The spotlight is on the past few weeks, with a stronger focus on two main issues that are likely to dominate the regional agenda of the next US administration: Iran and Israeli-Palestinian affairs.

It is no exaggeration to say that the Islamist political system in Tehran is on the brink of experiencing perilous blowback for the foreign policy choices it has made. Whether Tehran continues to prioritize the fight against Israel or decides to look for ways to deprioritize the conflict as a national security matter will not be settled in the foreseeable future — or perhaps the matter will be taken out of Iran’s hands.

A leader in renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa, Morocco is developing a dynamic green energy ecosystem that is beginning to incorporate renewable power into major sectors of its economy. Moving forward, renewable energy and the green energy ecosystem hold significant potential to drive the creation of employment opportunities for its growing population. Indeed, the expansion of green industrial manufacturing and agricultural production in Morocco could become the engine of sustainable human development more broadly. This case study explores current and planned efforts to expand the kingdom’s renewable energy sector and green energy ecosystem, assessing the opportunities and challenges in using these new green industries as a driver of long-term employment, particularly among women, youth, and rural populations.

Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1, 2024, marked a significant escalation in the ongoing regional tensions. This assault, reportedly involving 180 missiles, was the Islamic Republic of Iran’s largest yet against Israel, targeting military and security sites in retaliation for Israeli assassinations of leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas in Tehran and Beirut. Iranian officials framed the attack as an act of self-defense, warning that further Israeli actions could provoke even stronger retaliation from Tehran.

The strategic alliance between Pakistan and China, driven largely by opportunism and geostrategic interests, seems unshakable. However, the extent of its mutual benefit remains under scrutiny, especially for Islamabad, whose reliance on Beijing continues to deepen. Although China claims to base its foreign policy interactions on five key principles — respect for sovereignty, non-aggression, non-interference, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence — its dealings with Pakistan indicate an unequal power dynamic that primarily serves its own interests. This imbalance in the Pakistan-China strategic alliance has led to a situation in which Islamabad’s autonomy is increasingly curtailed, and its vulnerability to Beijing’s influence is becoming more apparent.

A cycle of retaliation against energy assets, though far from a guaranteed outcome, would be to the detriment of all and the benefit of none.