Research & Commentary Results

The November 3 US midterms handed Democrats control of both chambers of Congress, a result many abroad read as a rebuke of President Donald Trump’s policies. How does the “blue wave” resonate among electorates and governments in Turkey and Lebanon, two key American partners in the Middle East? Ankara is weighing an early vote that could let President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan run again while his chief rival stands trial. Beirut, its elections postponed by war, is trying to restore state authority, including over Hizballah’s weapons. MEI Senior Fellows Gönül Tol and Fadi Nicholas Nassar join host Alistair Taylor to discuss how both countries read the results, how issues like corruption struck a chord in each, and what Ankara and Beirut expect from a Democratic Congress.

On October 9, protesters in the northeastern city of Hasakah raised the Syrian flag and called for the extension of state authority, roughly six weeks after the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced their dissolution as an independent force. The protesters, who came from Ghwayran, al-Nashwa, al-Aziziyah, and the surrounding countryside, carried photographs of detainees. Alongside a stronger state presence, they demanded a say in how it would be exercised, from who is appointed to run local government to who is recruited into the security services.

Eight months after launching the war alongside Israel, Trump has yet to explain what an American victory would look like or how much longer the United States must keep fighting to achieve it. While Americans opted to vote for the Democratic Party, which is preparing to challenge the logic of the war, Trump retains much executive power to stay in the war. Going forward, this means the political risks for him and his party will be high.

Brian is joined by His Excellency Talal Al Rahbi, the ambassador of the Sultanate of Oman to the United States of America, to discuss what it means to represent the “Switzerland of the Middle East” and the role of Oman’s quiet diplomacy. He also reflects on growing up during Oman’s transformation, his time spent in the United States, and why the two nations’ long-standing partnership matters today.

After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?

Brian sits down with MEI Senior Fellow Jaser AbuMousa to assess the situation on the ground in Gaza three years after October 7 and a year into the ceasefire. Drawing on his own personal experience, Jaser explores the toll that the war and continued destruction have taken on Gaza’s residents, the implications of the recent Israeli and US elections, and the difficult path forward.

Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.

The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.

This report explores maritime security conditions in the Mediterranean and the evolving US engagement in the region. As critical infrastructure becomes increasingly vulnerable to sabotage, freedom of navigation is undermined by conflict, and energy disputes generate tension, US policy focus on the region has become fragmented and disengaged. The authors call for a sustained American role to strengthen maritime domain awareness, allied coordination, infrastructure protection, and the capacity to respond when Mediterranean crises affect US and transatlantic interests.

With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.

Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.

Geopolitical influence over trade increasingly rests on controlling the systems that make them work. The Middle East illustrates the stakes. US ports, cable corridors, cloud facilities, artificial intelligence (AI) investments, and maritime routes connect regional economies to global commerce while exposing them to external decisions and disruptions. For the United States, the challenge is to translate technological advantage into resilient networks rather than rely on centrality that can itself become a source of vulnerability and coercion.

Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.

Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.