Geopolitical influence over trade increasingly rests on controlling the systems that make them work. The Middle East illustrates the stakes. US ports, cable corridors, cloud facilities, artificial intelligence (AI) investments, and maritime routes connect regional economies to global commerce while exposing them to external decisions and disruptions. For the United States, the challenge is to translate technological advantage into resilient networks rather than rely on centrality that can itself become a source of vulnerability and coercion.
Bonus Episode: Previewing Israel’s First Post-October 7 Election
Israel is preparing to hold what may be its most consequential election in decades. On October 27, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will face his first electoral test since October 7, 2023. In this bonus episode of Middle East Focus, we present the audio from a recent MEI webinar, hosted in Israel on the eve of the vote. Senior Fellow Natan Sachs is joined by Dr. Shira Efron, Distinguished Chair for Israel Policy and senior fellow at the RAND Corporation, and Neri Zilber, veteran journalist and Financial Times correspondent. They explore what’s at stake in this historic election and how different outcomes could reshape Israel’s domestic politics and the wider region.
Israel Was Built on Hope. This Election May Be Our Last Chance to Save It
Israel’s national anthem, Hatikva, means “the hope.” Israel is not just another country, but the culmination of a 2,000-year-old dream of national redemption. The rebirth of the Jewish people’s ancestral homeland, just three years after the Holocaust, was a miraculous triumph of hope over all odds.
Today, that hope has been shattered and the elections on October 27 have become the most consequential in Israel’s history.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Russia looks to the Middle East to boost arms exports
According to SIPRI’s recently published annual report, Russia’s share of global arms exports shrank by around one-fifth over the last decade, falling from 27 percent to 21 percent, while the U.S. share increased from 30 percent to 36 percent, widening the gap between the two major arms exporters. As Russia looks to reverse this decline, it is focusing on the Middle East, the world’s second-largest and fastest-growing arms market, as a way to boost its exports.
Israel’s general election, to be held next Tuesday, April 9, is full of even more sound and fury than usual, but it isn’t at all clear what it will signify.
After a decade in power, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces significant headwinds in the forms of a strong challenge from the new Blue and White party and the specter of multiple criminal indictments. Natan Sachs, Amir Tibon, and Grace Wermenbol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss whether this could be the year of a major shakeup in Israeli politics.
Until two decades ago, Central Asia was a Russian playground. With increasing investment from the Gulf and China, however, the landscape has changed. The UAE, specifically, has recently been vying to play a larger role in this muslim-majority region through large investments in infrastructure.
US-Taliban talks strain ties between Washington and Kabul
More than six months on, the Afghan government remains excluded from U.S.-Taliban peace talks, and the Taliban still refuses to engage with the authorities in Kabul or halt its deadly attacks. The exclusion of the Afghan government has caused severe strains in the relationship between Washington and Kabul.
Invincible no more? Turkey’s Erdogan suffers election defeat
25 years ago, Turkish Islamists’ march to power began in the country’s capital, Ankara, and its largest city, Istanbul, when the ruling Justice and Development Party’s predecessor, the Welfare Party, captured the two municipalities. The loss of these cities in Sunday’s local elections could well mark the beginning of their descent.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Robert S. Ford, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Nathan Stock, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Jean-François Seznec provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the government shakeup in Algeria, Egyptian President el-Sissi’s visit to Washington, rocket attacks from Gaza, Imran Khan’s war against poverty, and a $69 billion merger between Saudi Arabia’s oil and chemical giants.
A tale fit for the silver screen: The rebirth of the Basrah Museum
The story of the Basrah Museum, which opened three new galleries on March 19th after languishing for 28 years, is nothing less than cinematic. Read it here.
Ali Çarkoğlu, professor of international relations at Koç University in Istanbul, Sinan Ciddi, executive director of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Georgetown University, and MEI’s Gonul Tol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss Turkey’s March 31 local elections amid mounting economic problems and political polarization.
Turkey’s municipal elections are in fact not local but a national referendum on the continued rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With his complete domination of every aspect of Turkey’s politics and media, as well as military, judicial, and educational institutions, it would be foolish to underestimate his ability to emerge a winner on March 31.
Where is ISIS today? | The end of the ISIS Caliphate
ISIS’s self-proclaimed Caliphate in Syria and Iraq came to an end on March 23, when the Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the U.S.-led international coalition, liberated the town of Baghouz after a tough six week battle. In some respects however, the military victory against ISIS was the easy part.
Following the liberation of ISIS-held territory in Syria and Iraq, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is reestablishing ties with regional actors as a means to mobilize Arab support for the Palestinian cause.
Restarting Police Reform in Tunisia: The Importance of Talking About Everyday Security
Police reform has lagged in Tunisia’s transition. Police violence, police impunity and a national sense of insecurity remain substantial concerns. The problems facing the Tunisian economy have drawn attention away from police reform, which had seen some positive change in 2011-2012. Since then, police unions have managed to stymie the reform process and have insulated the police from change. In addition, although the potency of the securitization argument (i.e., the police must be freed from civilian “interference” in order to fight terrorism) has waned, it remains a significant obstacle to reform. Challenging this argument and transforming the relationship between the police and the people requires expanding platforms for discussing day-to-day local security issues.
Monday Briefing | Iraq: Outreach abroad, but troubles at home
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, and Paul Salem provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iraqi Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi’s first foreign trip to Egypt, the future threat posed by ISIS, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s AIPAC meeting in Washington, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Lebanon.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
