The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict
Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.
In recent weeks, the Iran-backed Houthis have fired missiles and drones deep into Saudi Arabia, striking high-profile targets, including Riyadh’s airport and Aramco’s headquarters. The attacks follow a rapid Houthi offensive in September to seize key parts of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, which Saudi-backed government forces are now trying to roll back. Fatima Abo Alasrar, an affiliated scholar at MEI and non-resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack the latest phase of the conflict. They discuss what the Houthis want, Riyadh’s calculus and search for allies, and how this campaign ties into Iran’s confrontation with the United States.
Geopolitical influence over trade increasingly rests on controlling the systems that make them work. The Middle East illustrates the stakes. US ports, cable corridors, cloud facilities, artificial intelligence (AI) investments, and maritime routes connect regional economies to global commerce while exposing them to external decisions and disruptions. For the United States, the challenge is to translate technological advantage into resilient networks rather than rely on centrality that can itself become a source of vulnerability and coercion.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
The war in Afghanistan, the longest in U.S. history, shows little sign of winding down. Despite hundreds of billions of dollars in military aid and state support, Afghanistan still struggles with resilient Taliban and Islamic State insurgencies. Recent brazen terrorist attacks and growing disunity among the country’s political leadership raise new doubts about its future.
Top Iranian military commander warns Israel of new Intifada
A senior Iranian military official has warned that there will be a “far more widespread” Intifada (uprising) against Israel in response to President Donald Trump’s recent decision to recognize Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, the Iranian media reported.
IRGC has established several military bases across Syria, says Arab paper
Iran seeks to turn Syria into its largest foreign military base by establishing military bases across the country and supporting militias, an article published in Alwatan Arab daily alleged.
Iran’s 50th flotilla of warships berthed at Sri Lankan port
The Iranian Navy’s 50th flotilla of warships docked at the Sri Lankan port of Colombo earlier today, Tasnim News Agency reported. According to public relations department of the Navy, the Iranian naval fleet included Shahid Naghdi and Bayandor destroyers and Tonb logistic-combat vessel. The Iranian naval commanders from Artesh (Iran’s regular Army) onboard plan to meet senior Sri Lankan military officials to seek ways of bolstering naval cooperation between the two countries.
Air pollution in Iran’s Khuzestan Province reaches “extremely dangerous” levels
Air pollution in the southwestern Iranian province of Khuzestan has reached “extremely dangerous” levels, the BBC Persian reports. All flights at the international airport in Ahvaz, Khuzestan’s capital, have been suspended, and schools in several cities such as in Ahvaz, Abadan, Khoramshahr, and Mahshr have temporarily shut down. A video clip published on the BBC Persian website shows that dense dust pollution has forced scores of residents to leave the area.
Lebanon has not held parliamentary elections for almost a decade, delayed in part to await the outcome of the Syrian crisis next door. Polls are now set for May 6 and the race to form a majority coalition is on. What will the elections mean for Lebanon’s ability to manage domestic and external pressures? How strong will Hezbollah’s influence be? And will a new election law help or add to the confusion? MEI’s Paul Salem and Randa Slim join guest host Jerry Feierstein to discuss.
Alive in Graves: A film screening and discussion on Syria's detainees
Tens of thousands have been subjected to enforced disappearance in Syria since 2011. The regime is responsible for a majority of these detentions, but various armed groups have been guilty of the practice as well. Amnesty International has warned that “the plight of those who have vanished after being arrested by the authorities or detained by armed groups is a tragedy that has been largely ignored internationally.”
Soleimani commemorates Hezbollah commander by promising Israel’s destruction
Iran’s top general responsible for external operations marked the 10th assassination anniversary of late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh by promising the destruction of the state of Israel,
Returning to Tunisia for the first time in six years after facing charges of blasphemy for the making of “Laicite Inshallah,” her 2011 film about religious hypocrisy and government complicity with Islamist elements during and after President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime, veteran filmmaker Nadia el-Fani experienced an emotional moment.
Standing on the stage at the Carthage Film Festival’s November 2017 screening of her film, “It Doesn’t Even Hurt,” which depicts her simultaneous battles with breast cancer and death threats from Islamist extremists, she began to weep.
Iran defies EU demands about its missile program, destabilizing role in region
The Iranian Foreign Ministry has rejected European power’s demand that Tehran limit its missile activities and moderate its regional behavior. Bahram Qassemi, the ministry’s spokesman, lashed out at French President Emmanuel Macron’s latest demand that Iran’s ballistic missile program be placed under international surveillance.
IRGC outlet: Signs of direct confrontation between Syrian, Turkish militaries
The Syrian government and Kurdish rebel forces in northern Syria are working on an agreement on the deployment of Syrian Army troops to Afrin to counter the Turkish offensive in the region, Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the
“Abbas needs a crisis,” a veteran Palestinian analyst told me, circa 2012. Sitting in his East Jerusalem office, surrounded by photos chronicling Palestinian history in sepia, the respected academic was commenting on the inertia that has long characterized the policy decisions of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
Another Iran-backed Iraqi militia leader visits Lebanon, threatens Israel
The leader of an Iraqi militia group with close ties to Iran traveled to Lebanon this week to voice solidarity with Hezbollah and pledged to stand with the “axis of resistance” in any future wars with Israel. Akram al-Kaabi, the head of Harakat al-Nujaba, made the remarks to reporters in southern Beirut after visiting the tomb of late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, who was allegedly killed by Israel. “We, at the axis of resistance, will mobilize forces against Israel at any place.
Negotiating Protection in the Syrian Refugee Response
This essay examines the humanitarian negotiation of protection in the Syrian refugee response. Focusing on the case of Lebanon, the essay presents three examples of how the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has negotiated refugee protection: by avoiding the refugee label, by establishing the contested notion of “protection space,” and by suspending refugee registration at the request of the Lebanese government.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
