Research & Commentary

The October 2025 cease-fire and hostage-release deal that ended the Israel-Hamas conflict marks the beginning of a complicated post-war phase. The agreement has created important opportunities to advance stability in the Middle East and build a lasting and sustainable peace marked by enhanced regional security and integration, but there are considerable risks to manage. Achieving these goals will require coordinated international action along multiple lines of effort: security, rule of law, recovery and reconstruction, responsive governance, and steady and focused diplomacy to build confidence among key parties. 

To use an analogy, if this Gaza ceasefire deal were an aeroplane, it is currently picking up speed on the runway and arrives at the crucial point of immediate takeoff when all hostages held in Gaza are released in exchange for 2,000 Palestinians in Israeli prisons. This moment of “takeoff” will mark the end of a war, but the beginning of what is sure to be a long and bumpy flight. Time will tell if the plane ascends to higher altitudes or comes crashing to the ground.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact on September 17, 2025, declaring that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” The wording of the agreement sparked speculation that Pakistan might use its nuclear capabilities to defend Saudi Arabia. MEI’s F. Gregory Gause contends otherwise, offering insight into the history and strategic calculations driving the deal. To learn more about the deal, visit our website.

Two years after Hamas’ October 7 attack and Israel’s punishing response, both sides say they accept in principle President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to halt the war and chart a path toward enduring peace. MEI Senior Fellow Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to unpack what’s in the plan, how compatible it is with earlier Arab and European proposals, and whether its vague “credible pathway” to Palestinian statehood can withstand politics in Jerusalem, Ramallah, and Washington. They also explore the sticking points—Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, and Palestinian Authority reform—as well as what success would actually look like on the ground.

US President Donald Trump sent his top Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to take part in Israel-Hamas talks hosted by Egypt this week aimed at ending the war in Gaza, securing the release of hostages, and producing progress toward a lasting and sustainable resolution to the conflict. Here are three things to watch for in US policy on this front in the coming days and weeks.

Following Israel’s September 9 strike on Hamas targets in Qatar, Pakistan has taken swift and significant foreign policy steps in response and adopted an unusually assertive stance. This shift was largely influenced by Pakistan’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. The latter is determined to enhance his country’s strategic autonomy and diplomatic leverage in an increasingly complex international environment by positioning Pakistan as a key security actor and an emerging middle power on the global stage.

The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, signed in Riyadh on September 17, is far more than a bilateral pledge. It represents a profound reordering of alignments in the Gulf and South Asia, reflecting and reinforcing the broader erosion of US preeminence in the Eurasian security architecture. While much of the initial commentary centered on the striking commitment of a wealthy Gulf monarchy to the defense of a nuclear-armed South Asian state, as well as the question of whether Pakistan had in fact extended its nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, the deeper story is arguably China’s potential advance.

The September 17 Saudi-Pakistani defense agreement generated a wave of overheated commentary about Saudi Arabia now residing under a Pakistani nuclear umbrella and how a new strategic reality was in the offing in the Persian Gulf and South Asian regions. Analysts need to slow their roll. Extended deterrence is an extremely difficult thing to pull off. The devil is in the details, about which we know nothing.

After two terrible years — beginning on the horrific morning of October 7, 2023 — there is now a chance the Gaza war could end. This chance exists not because the 20-point proposal released by the United States on September 29, 2025, is a model of diplomatic detail or nuance. It exists because its patron, President Donald Trump, appears determined not to take “no” for an answer.

As we approach the two-year mark of the region-wide conflict unleashed by the attacks of October 7, 2023, it is important to take stock of how this poly-crisis has transformed the Middle East—and how it might evolve in the months ahead.

Veteran US foreign policy official Elliott Abrams joins Brian for a sweeping conversation on America’s role in the world amid global upheaval. With nearly 50 years of experience under Presidents Reagan, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump, Abrams offers lessons from past crises— from Ukraine to Gaza. Abrams makes his case for why he doesn’t see a two-state solution as realistic and what his alternative vision is. The discussion explores the chaotic uncertainty of Trump’s second term, Israel’s security two years after October 7, and the future of Palestinian governance and regional integration. Abrams also shares insights from his decades in government, including his work with Ariel Sharon on Gaza disengagement, his reflections on the Iraq War, and what it was like briefing presidents in the Oval Office.

Hundreds of young Moroccans are protesting across 11 cities since September 27 under the banner “GenZ 212.” The central trigger behind the demonstrations has been a deep popular frustration with Morocco’s persistent inability to deliver on its development plans and promises. This sort of broad disaffection will be challenging for the government to address quickly and credibly.

In this episode of Middle East Focus, hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Mirette F. Mabrouk to unpack the growing tensions over the recently inaugurated Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile.

On the table is a proposal for a complete Israeli hostage release within three days of Israel publicly accepting the agreement, followed by a release of Palestinian prisoners. Humanitarian aid would start to flood back into Gaza, and Israel would withdraw in stages to a security perimeter.

Internal fissures mean that the Taliban’s rejection of the issue is far from settled.