Research & Commentary

For years, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and ultimate powerbroker, has been insisting to his people that there would be no war with the United States or Israel. That claim was shattered when more than 1,000 Iranians were killed in June’s 12-day war. Now he warns against the country sliding into a “state of ‘no war, no peace.’” The diagnosis isn’t wrong—but refusing to confront hard choices is vintage Khamenei.

Turkey’s main opposition, the CHP, is facing its toughest test yet: mass arrests, sham court rulings, and the ouster of key leaders—including Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan’s chief rival. With trials looming that could replace CHP leadership with government loyalists, the party warns of a legal ‘coup.’ What does this crackdown mean for Turkey’s fragile economy, its 2028 elections, and the future of democracy itself?

The reverberations of Israel’s strike on the Hamas negotiating team in Doha yesterday are still rippling across the globe and will continue to for the foreseeable future. Its ramifications are profound and will alter the geopolitical landscape not just in the Middle East but likely on a global scale.

When Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was toppled late last year, it looked like a golden opportunity for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For more than a decade, the war next door had burdened Ankara with problems that it could not fix: millions of Syrian refugees straining domestic politics, U.S.-backed Kurdish militias entrenching along Turkey’s border, and a battlefield dominated by Russian and Iranian influence that left Ankara exposed to Moscow’s and Tehran’s whims.

Ross Harrison and Mohsen Milani—two leading experts on Iranian strategy—join Brian for a conversation about the evolution of the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy. Both draw on insights from their latest works: Harrison’s Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy and Milani’s Iran’s Rise and Rivalry with the US in the Middle East. They unpack the fallout of the Twelve-Day War, the weakening of the “Axis of Resistance,” and the lessons Tehran might take from Vietnam’s transformation.

There was a real possibility earlier this summer that the United States was going to veto the renewal of the UNIFIL mandate in August. Ultimately, a wiser course prevailed, when the UN Security Council extended UNIFIL’s mandate “for a final time” last week until the end of 2026.  This step is a positive one for everyone concerned except Hezbollah and its foreign patron, Iran.

The coming weeks may prove decisive in Europe’s long struggle to manage Iran’s nuclear ambitions. On Aug. 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany announced they will trigger the “snapback” sanctions mechanism. Whether Europe’s gamble succeeds will determine both the future of non-proliferation and the credibility of Europe as a strategic actor.

The most striking thing about Donald Trump’s foreign policy at the seven-month mark of his second administration is how it has failed to improve America’s overall strategic position in the world. It is still early days, but the Trump team’s frenetic flurry of actions, coupled with attention-seeking and often incendiary rhetoric, has served to obscure a poor record of scoring significant international wins for America.

At the end of August, the future of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), established nearly 50 years ago, goes on trial in New York, where the Security Council will debate the renewal of its mandate. Nearly two decades after its transformation under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, UNIFIL is now part of the problem it was created to solve. Ten thousand blue helmets from almost 50 countries, including major North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members, failed to stop the latest conflict between Israel and Hizballah, and, if business continues as usual, will fail to prevent the next.

Rana Abtar—chief correspondent for Asharq Al-Awsat and anchor of the Washington Report—joins Brian for a conversation on US policy in the Middle East, Lebanon’s struggles and resilience, and what it means to cover Washington for Arab audiences. From Trump’s Syria policy to the 2020 Beirut explosion, from life on Capitol Hill to her family’s roots in Baalbek, Rana brings together the political and the personal, sharing a unique perspective that bridges policy, culture, and humanity.

The long-awaited IMF staff report review of Egypt’s $8 billion loan agreement provides a thorough and unvarnished look at the current state of the economy. The report highlights potential opportunities for the country — but only if it first tackles overdue structural reforms.

In the Middle East, dealmaking between adversaries can be treacherous and drawn out for years. But recent energy deals have demonstrated a pragmatism and a new dynamic in which energy security and a concern for resource nationalism can supersede regional political obstacles. Israeli gas exports to neighbors Jordan and Egypt could help hold fragile peace agreements in place, while also accelerating national plans of energy independence via renewables. 

In this episode of Middle East Focus, host Alistair Taylor is joined by climate, energy, and sustainability expert Karim Elgendy to examine the growing water and climate crisis across the Middle East. They explore how climate change, mismanagement, and regional politics are straining already scarce resources — from Iran’s looming water shortages to Iraq’s power grid collapse and the Gulf’s dependence on desalination. The conversation also looks at prospects for regional cooperation, the role of technology, and the difficult balance between development and environmental sustainability.

All eyes this week are on Alaska, where US President Donald Trump will hold a pivotal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war. But the United States remains consumed by several domestic issues, including continued strains over policing, immigration, and checks and balances inside America’s system of government. All of this comes at a time when Trump’s domestic political standing continues to slip lower, including among members of his own party.

As the Trump administration pushes to expand the Abraham Accords in the Middle East and into the Caucasus and Central Asia, it overlooks a dramatic shift in perception across the Arab and Muslim world. Where once Israel might have been viewed as David battling a Goliath-like Arab world, today the roles appear reversed. Israel, empowered by unchecked military might and unwavering US support, is increasingly seen not just as a regional power but as a US-backed regional hegemon. For Gulf Arab states, this transformation presents a dilemma: Can a Goliath be a partner in peace?