Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.
Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.
In an August 9 interview with Axios, when asked about the endless swings of the Iran standoff, he shrugged it off as familiar territory. “It’ll work out in the end. It always does. It’s like a chess game.”
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
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Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Iran and the Gulf states 40 years after the 1979 revolution
Geopolitically, the Iranian Revolution did more to transform the Middle East than any other event in the second half of the 20th century. It aimed to restructure not only Iran’s society and political system, but also others across the Islamic world. Refusing to align with either the United States or the Soviet Union in the Cold War, the newly established Islamic Republic sought to create a new geopolitical order in the Persian Gulf and greater Middle East based on a mantra of “neither East nor West.”
Why Assad’s alliance with Iran and Hezbollah will endure
This article was published by IranSource on February 6, 2019.
The Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah trilateral partnership has been decades in the making. It pre-dates the Syrian civil war, has strengthened as a result of the war and will likely endure in the post-war years.
As Iraqi Kurds gain more autonomy than ever in modern history, they seem to be losing their cultural heritage. This is exemplified best by the disappearing tradition of Kurdish carpet weaving.
Renouncing al-Qaeda and the prospects for engagement
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) recent seizure of the northern Syrian province of Idlib once again brings to the fore the debate over HTS’ renunciation of al-Qaeda (AQ). But can a group renounce AQ? If so, how should Western countries react, if at all?
MEI’s Robert Ford and Charles Lister join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the announced US withdrawal from Syria, the rush to fill the power vacuum that has ensued in its wake, and what the policy means for Syrians and the fight against ISIS.
Growing ties with Russia could strain Saudi-US relations
With more of their geopolitical goals aligning, ties between Riyadh and Moscow are growing closer, and the kingdom plans to invest billions of additional dollars in Russian petroleum and other projects.
The Islamic State in India: Upgrading Capabilities?
The Islamic State (IS) is generally considered to be a very modest threat to Indian national security when compared to Kashmiri separatists, Naxalites, and the North East insurgencies. Yet, paradoxically, of all such violent non-state actors it has been IS that has garnered the most national attention in recent years. In December 2018 and January 2019, it was reported that Indian authorities had disrupted terrorist plots by two IS-inspired groups. This article discusses these incidents and what they reveal and might portend.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Randa Slim, Paul Salem, Ahmad Majidyar, and Marvin G. Weinbaum provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including President Trump’s comment about keeping U.S. troops in Iraq “to be able to watch Iran,” Pope Francis’s trip to the UAE, the EU’s maneuvers to defy U.S. sanctions on Iran, and intra-Afghan talks in Moscow.
Iraq: Stuck in the middle again
Randa Slim Senior Fellow, Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues program
The Global and Regional Geopolitics of Civil War in the Middle East
Power dynamics between the major global and regional powers have indirectly influenced the civil wars currently plaguing the Middle East. The distribution of power caused by end of the Cold War facilitated the creation of two opposing camps that later competed for regional primacy in the civil wars of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
There is no doubt that minors are fighting in the ranks of the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that controls most of the country’s northeast, but just how widespread is this phenomenon?
President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Syria came as a surprise to all parties involved, sparking particular concern among America’s Syrian Kurdish allies. This sudden and unexpected decision has been widely criticized not only by allies but also those inside the White House, with many analysts arguing that the U.S. withdrawal will expose the Syrian Kurds to an attack by Turkey. This move may push the YPG to seek the protection of Moscow following the US’s withdrawal in order to secure stability and dialogue with the government in Damascus.
MEI’s Ahmad Majidyar and Marvin Weinbaum join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the US-Taliban negotiations in Doha and what a potential agreement could mean for Afghanistan and the wider region.
Hariri announces another flawed government, but don’t walk away from Lebanon
After nine months of deadlock, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri announced the formation of a new government of 30 ministers. The composition of the government is reflective of Lebanon’s power-sharing system and of the results of the last parliamentary elections.
Lifting the veil: Israel’s new military strategy in Syria
After years of ambiguity, Israel is increasingly going public with its strikes on Syria. Retaliatory attacks carried out last week were conducted in broad daylight, and in contrast to prior strikes, the IDF immediately took responsibility for them and announced them in real time on twitter.
Israel is set to hold national elections in early April, and all indications suggest that the contest is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s to lose. Current polls indicate that he will form the next government, leading a coalition spearheaded by his Likud Party with 30 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
