Washington says it doesn’t know who runs Iran. Tehran insists its leadership is united. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to sort out where the truth lies. They look at the small circle of political and military figures now steering the war effort in Tehran: who they are, how they make decisions, and how unified they really are. They also discuss the current state of US-Iran negotiations, the role of the upcoming midterm elections in the United States, and how the Islamic Republic is preparing for a potential renewal of conflict afterward.
Crude oil is flowing out of the Gulf again, but the market is no better prepared for another disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. It has assembled a temporary system for managing one. Crude exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, while total Gulf shipments reached 15.5 million barrels a day, more than 80% of the pre-conflict volume.
As a result of the Iran war, Turkish thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. Iran’s emergent ability to threaten regional states (and possible determination to acquire a nuclear weapon itself), growing concern about Israeli aggressiveness, doubts about US security guarantees, and greater Saudi nuclear autonomy are all pushing Ankara to consider a future nuclear option.
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Restoring security and stability in Yemen is going to be a long-term process. Successful peace negotiations — including a ceasefire and confidence-building measures — can only be a first step toward that broader objective.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, and F. Gregory Gause, head of the Department of International Affairs at Texas A&M University, join host Jerry Feierstein to discuss the state of GCC relations amid the Qatar dispute and other crises heading into the next GCC Summit.
The GCC Riyadh summit: Beginning of the end of the Qatar crisis?
The upcoming GCC summit in Saudi Arabia offers an opportunity to bring the opposing sides to the table, but it is far from clear what will come out of the meeting
As fighting gives way to governing, Syria faces new challenges
As the Syrian government begins to shift its focus to postwar governance, it faces unexpected new challenges and growing criticism from citizens voicing their frustration through social media and other channels.
Getting Qatar Ready For 2022: Reforms in Labor Immigration Policy and India’s Options
The estimated 650,000-700,000 Indian migrant workers in Qatar constitute the latter’s largest expatriate community and nearly double the number of native Qataris. Their positive contribution to the progress and development of their host country is well recognized. In recent years, however, Qatar’s handling of the rights and protections of migrant workers, a large portion of whom are unskilled Indian laborers employed in the construction sector in preparation for hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup has received a great deal of international media scrutiny and criticism. This article discusses the strides that Qatar has made in addressing these concerns and the steps India could undertake to spur further progress in ensuring that its migrant workers’ rights are protected.
Monday Briefing: Optics and geo-economics at the G20
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including MBS’ lukewarm reception at the G20 summit, plans for a UN-hosted Western Sahara roundtable, and Qatar’s decision to leave OPEC.
Geneva conference lays out challenges in Afghanistan
Held on Nov. 27-28, the two-day Geneva conference on Afghanistan voiced both challenges and prospects for Afghanistan’s economic and political stability.
Max Hoffman, associate director of national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, and MEI’s Gonul Tol join host Alistair Taylor to discuss the social, political, and foreign policy issues Turkey has been grappling with in recent years.
From “hard power” to “soft power” and back again: Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East
Turkey’s foreign policy has come full circle in the last few years, from a “soft power” and regional exemplar to a “hard power” pursuing a muscular stance sustained by military engagements.
Even if negotiating with Trump is impossible—and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said it is—the leadership in Tehran can still look at his presidency as an opportunity to prepare the ground to talk to his successor.
Moscow faces new challenges in Idlib "de-escalation zone"
“De-escalation” zones have been a key part of Russia’s policy in Syria over the past 18 months, but the situation in Idlib, the fourth and final zone, has proven a much greater challenge than the others.
The Israel-China-U.S. Triangle and the Haifa Port Project
This essay discusses the Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG) contract to operate the northern port in Haifa in terms of Israel’s relations with China and the United States. The author urges greater caution by Israeli policy-makers and the public and closer cooperation between Israel and the U.S. in managing the risks associated with Chinese investment and commercial activities in critical sectors of the Israeli economy.
Monday Briefing: Russians launch air strikes after alleged gas attack
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including Russian air strikes in Aleppo, the elections in Bahrain, the growing international interest in Egypt’s offshore energy finds, and the appointment of a new Afghan team of negotiators for peace talks.
Elizabeth Campbell, director of UNRWA’s Representative office in Washington, and MEI’s Nathan Stock join guest host Alistair Taylor to discuss the recent flare-up in Gaza, the subsequent ceasefire, and where things go from here.
The Egyptian/Qatari initiative has afforded breathing room for Gaza, while Hamas and Prime Minister Netanyahu have demonstrated a determination to avoid war, for now.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
