Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.
Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.
In an August 9 interview with Axios, when asked about the endless swings of the Iran standoff, he shrugged it off as familiar territory. “It’ll work out in the end. It always does. It’s like a chess game.”
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
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Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Iran-Backed Militia Commander Warns of Bloodshed over Kurdish Referendum
A prominent Iranian-sponsored Iraqi militia group has rejected a U.N.-sponsored initiative on the Iraqi Kurdistan and warned that Erbil’s plan to hold an independence referendum is a “foreign conspiracy” that will destabilize Iraq. Earlier today, the political bureau of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, a unit within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), issued a statement calling for unity in Iraq and rejected a U.N.-sponsored initiative on Kurdistan.
P.M.F. Forces Participate in Hawija Offensive ahead of Kurdish Referendum Vote
On Thursday, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the operational chief commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, announced the start of the first phase of a military operation to liberate the town of Hawija in the disputed province of Kirkuk. The P.M.F. vice-chairman explained that the offensive began from four main fronts: the Iraqi security forces and P.M.F. paramilitary troops will first capture al-Shirqat, a Sunni Arab town in Salahuddin Province, and then advance into Hawija.
U.S. Forces to Leave al-Tanf Military Base, Fars News Agency
American troops and U.S.-backed Syrian rebel forces plan to vacate the strategic military base in al-Tanf region along Syria’s border with Iraq and Jordan, Iran’s Fars News Agency reports. Quoting an unidentified military official, F.N.A. adds that the U.S. military is seeking to hand over the base to a rebel group. It also referred to a report in a Jordanian newspaper which claimed the U.S. has decided to leave al-Tanf but has not yet set a withdrawal timetable.
Iranian leaders have reacted angrily to President Donald Trump’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly and threatened retaliatory measures if Washington leaves the Iran nuclear deal and imposes new sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Under pressure from hardliners in Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani delivered a fiery rebuke of Trump’s anti-Iran remarks and warned that Tehran would respond decisively if Washington violates the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the nuclear accord Iran signed with world powers in July 2015.
Kurdish Referendum a Reaction to Iraqi Government’s Failure to Implement Constitution
The upcoming independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan is partially a consequence of politicization of the Kurdish constitutional demands by Iraqi political leaders. The Kurdistan Regional Government (K.R.G.) was officially recognized by the Iraqi state when Saddam Hussein’s regime fell in 2003 and the new government installed a federal system. In 2004, the Transitional Administrative Law established the Iraqi Transitional Government, and officially recognized the K.R.G. for the first time in the history of the Iraqi state.
Recent surveys conducted in Europe indicate a rise in Islamophobia since 2015, namely since the beginning of the refugee crisis. Islamophobic incidents have been taking place across the whole continent, even in places where Muslim communities are almost absent, for example, in some Central European states. Islamophobia is exacerbated by some European governments and right-wing politicians who openly express anti-Muslim opinions.
Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS): Renewing Efforts in India
On September 4, 2014 Al-Qaeda Central (AQC) announced the formation of a new regional affiliate called “Qaedat al-Jihad fi’shibhi al-qarrat al-Hindiya,” or Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). Recently, AQIS has been ramping up its efforts to increase its presence in India. This article examines AQIS’ renewed ambitions and activities in India.
Iranian Leaders Reject Macron’s Proposal to Supplement Nuclear Deal
Iranian leaders today rejected France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that the Iran nuclear accord could be supplemented to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and Iranian nuclear program after 2025.
Khamenei’s Aide Blasts Nuclear Deal, Urges Government to Emulate North Korea
A prominent voice for Iran’s hardliners has denounced the 2015 nuclear deal and demanded that the Islamic Republic emulate North Korea in resisting American pressure and threats. “They say the J.C.P.O.A. is a good model,” said Hossein Shariatmadari, the editor-in-chief of Kayhan newspaper, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “Yes, it certainly is so but for the Americans not for Iran,” he added. “Iran only granted concessions in J.C.P.O.A. A J.C.P.O.A.
Top U.S. Official: Iran Fuels Yemeni Civil War by Sending Weapons to Houthis
Iran continues to inflame the civil war in Yemen by smuggling illicit weapons and technology to Houthi rebels, the top American admiral in the Middle East has said. In an interview with the New York Times, Vice Adm. Kevin M. Donegan pointed out that Tehran is also enabling Yemeni rebels to fire more advanced missiles into neighboring Saudi Arabia and target allied ships in the Red Sea. “These types of weapons did not exist in Yemen before the conflict,” Donegan said.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Commanders Play Increasing Role in Kirkuk
Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the operational chief commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.), traveled to the disputed province of Kirkuk on Monday and met with Abu Reza al-Najjar, the military commander of the northern zone in the province. According to Iran’s Fars News Agency, the Kurdish Regional Government last Wednesday deployed two battalions of Peshmerga forces and PKK militants to Kirkuk to assist Kurdish forces in the region against a perceived threat from P.M.F.
Mideast Leaders Seeking Clarity from Trump Administration | Monday Briefing
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Paul Salem, Alex Vatanka, Eran Etzion, Gerald Feierstein, and Bilal Y. Saab discuss this week’s U.N. General Assembly, including President Trump’s expected statements on regional policy, the debate over the Iran nuclear deal, and potential movements to mediate the Gulf crisis.
Khamenei: Iran Won’t Be Bullied, Will Respond to Any U.S. “Wrong Move” on Nuclear Deal
As Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was leaving Tehran to attend the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gave a fiery speech accusing Washington of reneging on the terms of the nuclear deal and pursuing hostile policies toward the Islamic Republic. Speaking to a gathering of law enforcement students in Tehran, Khamenei stressed that the Islamic Republic will not be bullied by the United States and will react forcefully to any “wrongdoing” by Washington with regards to the nuclear issue.
Iran Set to Launch New Satellite despite Western Concerns
Iran’s Minister of Communication and Information Technology announced today that the country has three satellites that are ready to be launched in the near future. “We have had talks with the Ministry of Defense as required and we will launch the satellites whenever they say,” Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi told reporters in Tehran.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
