The Other MoU: Launching a Europe-Gulf Resilience Initiative After the US-Iran Deal
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran may have ended one of the most consequential Middle Eastern crises in decades, but it has not resolved the strategic problem it exposed. Whether the 60-day talks it set in motion will produce a final agreement remains far from certain.Yet the central lessons are already clear: Iran has preserved significant leverage, Washington has had to scale back its ambitions, and Europe and the Gulf face the prospect of protracted regional tension. Europe and the Gulf should therefore use the aftermath of the US-Iran deal to articulate their own “other MoU”: a Europe-Gulf Resilience initiative.
A Post-War Model for Verifying Iran’s Missile Arsenal
This study proposes a model for constraining and verifying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal by employing a layered Strategic Verification Model with seven components: comprehensive baseline declarations; missile test and launch monitoring; intrusive inspections; quantitative and qualitative limits on missile capabilities; production controls, especially on solid-fuel manufacturing; a robust enforcement and compliance architecture; and regional confidence building measures.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
This backgrounder provides an overview of how the Abraham Accords came about, the US interests involved, their economic and strategic consequences, and the prospects for further enlargement going forward.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.
Podcasts
Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
Iran Seeks to Boost Ties with South Africa, Particularly in Banking Sector
Top Iranian officials have called for cultivating comprehensive ties with South Africa, particularly in banking sector. In a meeting with visiting speaker of South Africa’s parliament Baleka Mbete this weekend, President Hassan Rouhani said Tehran is keen to boost its diplomatic and economic relations with the African nation.
Iran: Consequences of Referendum Will be Dire for Iraq and Region
Secretary of Iran’s Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei has warned that the consequences of the Iraqi Kurdistan’s plan to hold an independence referendum will be dire for Iraq and the broader region. “Disintegration of Iraq would mark the beginning of widespread insecurity not only in Iraq, but in the entire region… We oppose such a referendum and call on the Kurdish leaders to halt that plan,” he said at a press conference in Baghdad on Monday.
Iran and Russia Discuss Next Diplomatic and Military Steps about Syria
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy on Syria today met with Iranian officials in Tehran to assess the latest developments and coordinate the two countries’ military and diplomatic efforts regarding the Syrian war. According to Iranian media, Alexander Lavrentiev briefed Iranian officials on Moscow’s recent talks with other foreign powers regarding Syria ahead of the next Astana meeting.
MEI experts Paul Salem, Will Wechsler, Marvin Weinbaum, and Ahmad Majidyar discuss current issues in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and U.S. policy and strategic interests in the region.
Hezbollah-Islamic State Deal Divides Iraqi Leaders
After Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi criticized the latest Hezbollah and Syria-backed agreement to transfer Islamic State fighters from the Lebanese-Syrian border to eastern Syria near the Iraqi border, several Iraqi political and militia leaders close to Tehran voiced support for the deal and praised Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Iranian and Qatari Leaders Pledge to Expand Bilateral Ties
Iran opposes “unjust” sanctions against Qatar and is ready to expand its relations with the Arab country in all fields, President Hassan Rouhani said in a phone conversation with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani on Thursday. “The Islamic Republic of Iran believes what was imposed on Qatar was unfair and that it fuels tension between regional countries. Iran will do all in its power to cooperate with and assist the Qatari people and government as well as to [promote] regional stability,” Rouhani added.
Iran-Backed Iraqi Paramilitary Forces Will Participate in Hawija Offensive
The spokesman of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) has announced that the paramilitary forces will participate in the next major offensive against the Islamic State in Hawija city of Iraq’s Kirkuk Province. Ali al-Husseini said on Friday that the military operation will begin within a few days. There are about 2,000 Islamic State fighters in Hawija, Fars News Agency quotes a local official as saying. The P.M.F.
Iran praised the latest report by the International Atomic energy Agency (I.A.E.A.) on the country’s compliance with the nuclear agreement as “Iran’s victory and Washington’s defeat.” The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency said that the nuclear watchdog’s report was the latest sign that the White House has failed in its efforts to derail the
Israel has weathered the campaign to oust Bashar al-Assad far better than its neighbors. Unlike many others, Israel was never a true believer in the failed effort to topple the Assad regime, preferring an opportunistic rather than a principled strategy that aimed at keeping Israel out of harm’s way.
The challenges of postwar Syria, however, may prove more daunting. Israel must now deter any interest by Syria’s Arab and Iranian allies to deploy military forces in Syria against it.
Rouhani and Erdogan Pledge to Boost Bilateral Ties, Cooperate on Regional Problems
Iran wants to cooperate more closely with Turkey to resolve regional problems, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a telephone conversation earlier today. Rouhani offered his congratulations to Erdogan on the occasion of Eid al-Adha and stressed that he will do more during his second term in office to expand Tehran’s ties with Ankara in all fields.
Iran’s New Defense Minister: Support for “Resistance Front” Will Continue
Iran’s new defense minister has said that the country will continue to support the “resistance front” by providing “advisory” assistance. In an interview with the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (I.R.I.B.), Brigadier General Amir Hatami also stressed the need for employing “defense diplomacy” to ensure Iran’s national security interests in the region. He claimed that Iran’s enemies are worried that the Islamic Republic has become a “role model for resistance” and supports resistance groups in the region.
A new homegrown military submarine Fateh (Conqueror) is going through final tests and will soon join the Iranian naval forces, Defense Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami has said. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, the new Iranian defense minister added that the 527-ton Fateh submarine is a semi-heavy undersurface vessel. The submarine reportedly is equipped with an advanced sonic radar system which can identify enemy vessels and uses a missile defense system.
U.S. and Iran on a Collision Course in Syria, Again
Iran and its allies are sending reinforcements near a de-confliction zone in southeastern Syria to pressure the U.S. military to withdraw from a strategic garrison near al-Tanf border crossing. Both Tehran and Damascus see the presence of U.S. troops training rebel forces in al-Tanf, as well as in northeastern Syria, as a serious threat. Iran also views the expulsion of the U.S.
Iran Expanding Influence in Syria, Despite Israeli Warnings
Even before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the Black Sea resort of Sochi last Wednesday for his sixth consultation in two years with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow’s representative in Tel Aviv laid out a soothing if improbable vision of a Syria free of Iranian troops and Shiite militias.
Israel-Palestine: What Can Be Learned from Other Conflicts?
Israelis and Palestinians tend to be invested in the notion that their conflict is unique in its intractability. But other conflicts have reached a measure of resolution, or at least extended periods of non-violence. Learning from their limited success can offer insights and key policy implications; learning from their failures can provide valuable warnings and lessons. Comparing conflicts can even humanize what’s happening in Israel and the occupied territories.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
