Wars don’t just end. They get interpreted, reinterpreted, and turned into strategic doctrine. That is what happened after the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, a conflict that saw the United States back Tehran’s Iraqi adversaries. The war taught Tehran three lessons it never unlearned: that Washington wants the Islamic Republic gone, that Iran stands essentially alone in the world, and that it cannot survive a direct, overt fight with the U.S. and Israel.
Within 48 hours this week, Iran filled six of the most important posts in its battered military and security establishment. Read together with the biographies and mandates behind them, the appointments show how Tehran is drawing lessons from successive wars and preparing for a prolonged period of insecurity, without proving it has abandoned negotiation.
In an August 9 interview with Axios, when asked about the endless swings of the Iran standoff, he shrugged it off as familiar territory. “It’ll work out in the end. It always does. It’s like a chess game.”
Since 1967, Israeli settlements in the West Bank have been a contested feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The ultimate disposition of the settlements and ongoing activity related to their growth have repeatedly defied agreement in negotiations over a resolution to the conflict.
The Houthis are a political-military faction and Zaydi religious movement founded in northwestern Yemen in the 1980s. A key member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance with links to other militant organizations in the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa, the group has continued to pose a threat to Western interests on a global scale.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a proposed multinational infrastructure initiative aimed at upgrading connectivity between the three regions through integrated trade, energy, and digital networks. Announced at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, IMEC is envisioned partially as a counterweight to China’s international infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
After a decade of post-Arab Spring isolation, Turkey’s leaders have recognized that their ambition to position the country as an agenda-setter on the world stage requires active engagement in all directions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of executive authority has centralized foreign policy decision-making and tied it to his domestic political priorities, transforming the country’s revisionist approach to one shaped primarily by personal and pragmatic interests.
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Middle East Focus
MEI’s flagship weekly podcast on US foreign policy and contemporary political and social issues in the Middle East.
MEI Senior Fellow Brian Katulis engages friends, colleagues, and policy experts in casual conversations on the most important happenings in the Middle East.
I.R.G.C. Outlet: Iran’s “Military Diplomacy” Forced Pakistan to Take Action against Terrorists
An article in Tasnim News Agency says Iran’s “military diplomacy” was instrumental in compelling Pakistan to take concrete actions against terrorist groups. “After the attack by terrorist groups that martyred 10 Iranian border guards, it was the powerful words of Major General [Mohammad] Bagheri that made Pakistani political leaders to take practical actions to control the borders,” wrote the outlet, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.).
Accusations are mounting that Iran is ramping up its engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Like a lot of Iran’s murky foreign policy, it is difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. The three questions that need to be answered to clear up the murky relationship between Iran and the Taliban are: why the change in Iran’s policy; when did this policy change occur; and what is the level of support afforded to the Taliban?
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet President Donald Trump as a frustrated and disappointed man. His hopes for a clean slate after strained relations with President Barack Obama have been dashed as Trump has endorsed his predecessor’s policies against key Turkish demands. Importantly, Trump last week approved an Obama era plan to arm Syrian Kurds in preparation for the upcoming battle to retake Raqqa from ISIS.
The India-U.A.E. Strategic Partnership in Regional Context: A Zero-Sum Game?
Since the government of Narendra Modi took office in 2014, India and the U.A.E. have moved relatively quickly to consolidate their existing ties and to explore new areas of cooperation. During this time, they have elevated the relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, with the expressed intention of extending their cooperation to the security and defense spheres. This essay discusses these recent developments, with particular attention to the role of Pakistan as a constraining factor in India-U.A.E. relations going forward.
Iran’s Envoy to Iraq Meets with Senior Religious and Political Leaders in Karbala
On Monday, Iranian Ambassador to Baghdad Iraj Masjedi traveled to the holy city of Karbala and held meetings with senior Iraqi government officials and religious leaders, the
I.R.G.C. Outlet: U.S. Eyes Post-ISIS Military Presence in Iraq and Syria to Counter Iran
A lengthy report in Fars News Agency (F.N.A.), an outlet close to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.), claims that the United States is seeking to contain the growing influence of Iran and its proxies in Iraq and Syria by increasing its military presence in northern and southern Syria and keeping
Iran’s Defense Minister Cautions about Anti-Iran “Arab NATO” by U.S. and Its Allies
President Donald Trump’s planned trip to Saudi Arabia has triggered concern in Tehran. Iranian officials and media outlets appear to be particularly troubled by Riyadh’s decision to invite leaders of dozens of Muslim countries to attend a summit with the American president. Many Iranian leaders and analysts say Washington, Israel and Sunni Gulf nations want to establish an “Arab NATO” or “American-Arab NATO” to confront Iran’s power and influence in the region.
Hardliners Question Rouhani’s Pledge to Remove Remaining Sanctions if Reelected
The hardline Iranian media – particularly outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) – has attacked President Hassan Rouhani for pledging to make efforts to remove remaining U.S. sanctions against Iran if reelected.
Syria Talks Resume in Geneva; Saudis to Give Warm Welcome to Trump; Qalibaf Withdraws from Iran Presidential Race
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Charles Lister, Gerald Feierstein, Eran Etzion, and Alex Vatanka provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including the resumption of Syria talks in Geneva, President Trump’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel, and the latest developments in the home stretch of Iran’s presidential election.
Escalating Tension between Iran-Backed P.M.F. Groups and Peshmerga Forces in Sinjar
A commander of Kurdish peshmerga forces in the Iraqi town of Sinjar, Sarbast Lazkeen, has cautioned that any further expansion of Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) toward the Syrian border and into Kurdish regions could prompt a direct military intervention by Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the United States.
Hezbollah Reportedly Deploys 1,000 Fighters near Syria-Jordan Border to Face “U.S.-Backed” Militants
The Lebanese Hezbollah has dispatched hundreds of its fighters in two main fronts in southern Syria near the border with Jordan, according to Fars News Agency, an outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.).
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