Research & Commentary

Let us assume that nobody will bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, at least for quite a while. There is no Iranian nuclear test in the offing. Until now, the inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have uncovered no diversion of declared stocks of uranium for use in a nuclear explosive device. Of course, clandestine activities could always take place in some remote stretch of the vast Iranian territory, unknown to the inspectors of the Vienna Agency.

This Opinion first appeared in the Majalla on March 22, 2012

The Middle East Institute is proud to host Gulf Research Center experts Abdulaziz Sager, Mustafa Alani, and Christian Koch for an examination of recent developments in the Gulf in the wake of the Arab Spring. The speakers will address the crises in Yemen and Bahrain, US-Gulf relations and the question of reform in the region.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described upcoming talks with Iran over its nuclear program as "the last chance to resolve the crisis." Yet as the final hour approaches for an opportunity to avert a military attack, there are few apparent signs Iran will make compromises. Recent parliamentary elections have only strengthened the power of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the hardliners in his inner circle who aspire to make the Islamic republic a regional superpower.

This Opinion first appeared in the Huffington Post on March 22, 2012

Originally posted September, 2011

The flow of ideas, people, and commerce across national boundaries has been occurring with breathtaking rapidity in the broader Middle East, as elsewhere. These increasingly dense exchanges have generated new threats and vulnerabilities that have tended to impact women, children, and the poorest members of society disproportionately. They also have given people more resources and opportunities with which to shape their lives and their futures.

Originally posted September 2011

Approximately six months ago, I asked an astute long-time American observer of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict whether we had come to the end of the road for a two-state solution. He replied that we had come to the end of that road in 1967. Putting it differently, Zhou Enlai, the premier of the People’s Republic of China under Mao Zedong, when asked what he thought of the French Revolution, reportedly replied that it was too early to tell.

MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

MEI Podcast number 10, 21 March, 2012, Iran and the West at a Crossroad: Will Recent Elections Make or Break a Deal on Iran’s Nuclear Program?

The total number of Bahraini citizens is reported to be about 570,000 nationals, less than half of a total population of over 1.2 million.[1] Nevertheless, this very small number makes up an amazingly complex society comprised of groups and subgroups with different interests and agendas. A short unpacking of Bahraini society may shed some light on the problems facing the Kingdom in 2012, and perhaps guide us through possible steps toward reconciliation.

Russia's relations with Syria – even under the Assad regime – have been more troubled than current press accounts of Moscow-Damascus ties indicate. But despite the internal and external opposition to the Assad regime that has risen up over the past year, the Russian government has defended it staunchly via its Security Council veto and other means. In his talk, Mark Katz will discuss why Moscow supports the Assad regime so strongly as well as why it is willing to incur the costs of doing so.

Are Iran’s leaders rational actors? This question matters when justifying any decision by Israel to preempt Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. An Iranian regime seen as driven to destroy the Jewish state has to be dealt with differently than one whose objectives are mediated by calculations of costs and benefits. Deterrents that would be normally expected to restrain a state would not work with an irrational Iran.