Intissar Fakir

As the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) approaches the October 31 renewal deadline of the UN Monitoring Mission in Western Sahara (MINURSO), the mission’s longer-term future remains uncertain. Another largely unchanged renewal remains a likely immediate outcome. But beyond that holding pattern, three possible scenarios are also on the table.

Algeria and Morocco have long been at odds, but recent diplomatic moves may signal a widening geopolitical split in North Africa. Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellow Intissar Fakir to unpack Algeria’s decision to sever diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates and Morocco’s warming relations with both the UAE and Israel. They also explore linkages between these diplomatic shifts and the Western Sahara conflict, Moroccan domestic concerns, particularly in light of this week’s elections, as well as broader regional stability.

Moroccans head to the polls on September 23 in a parliamentary election that is meant to formally close the chapter opened during last year’s Gen Z 212 protests. The demonstrations, which erupted almost exactly a year ago, drew attention to the mismatch that exists between Morocco’s economic and geopolitical ambitions, and the stark reality of its lagging domestic development.

North African governments have sought to remain outside the US-Iran conflict, regardless of their differing alignments and preferences. Geography insulates them from the fighting, but not from the consequences. That duality is the region’s predicament: what makes North Africa useful to others is what leaves it exposed.

When the Strait of Hormuz closed in March, fertilizer prices spiked within weeks, triggering a food security crisis across North Africa and the Sahel. Host Alistair Taylor is joined by MEI Senior Fellow Intissar Fakir to explore what it means for the region, unpack the link between food security and regional stability, and assess how the strait’s reopening could impact those affected.

Trump’s active Middle East policy reflects a striking paradox. The United States is more visibly engaged in the region than the “America first” rhetoric suggests, yet its influence over regional outcomes continues to erode.

North African states feel the consequences of the US-Israel war with Iran less through direct security risks than through economic shocks that affect long-term stability. The region remains highly exposed to disruptions in global food and energy markets, where price spikes can lead to fiscal pressure, inflation, and social unrest.

On October 31, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution centering Morocco’s autonomy plan as the basis for resolving the Western Sahara conflict. The UN vote and comments from United States Special Envoy Steve Witkoff suggest President Donald Trump wants another headline foreign policy “peacemaking” win. But the opportunity for the Trump administration is bigger than just resolving the Western Sahara issue. It could unlock an opportunity for Morocco-Algeria reconciliation that could integrate the wider Maghreb economy, reduce migration into Europe, expand energy cooperation, and enable stronger Sahel counter-terrorism coordination.

Hundreds of young Moroccans are protesting across 11 cities since September 27 under the banner “GenZ 212.” The central trigger behind the demonstrations has been a deep popular frustration with Morocco’s persistent inability to deliver on its development plans and promises. This sort of broad disaffection will be challenging for the government to address quickly and credibly.

North African states are turning long-standing diplomatic relationships into new opportunities for leverage, using migration flows, energy supplies, and security partnerships as bargaining chips. These new tactics and strategies are reshaping regional diplomacy.

As the Western Sahara conflict reaches its fifth decade, the territorial dispute remains unresolved and largely unknown. MEI’s Intissar Fakir unpacks the Western Sahara’s complex history and the rival claims by Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. She examines recent developments, such as President Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory and the collapse of a 30-year cease-fire, as well as the core questions that remain unanswered after half a century.

The United States struck three nuclear facilities in Iran on the evening of June 21, in the midst of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. MEI scholars provide real-time analysis to help make sense of what this escalation means and what might come next.