Iran Breaking News — Expert Coverage

“The US/Israeli move to military operations was foreseeable, as were the punitive Iranian strikes on US Gulf partners; the widest-possible war aims from President Trump (“freedom for Iran”) were less so and are disquieting in the extreme. Fomenting a popular uprising from the air is both high-risk (be careful what you aim for — Libya 2011) and, ironically, in the current circumstance, likely low-impact. Where is the day-after thinking undergirding this campaign? Not in evidence.”

“President Trump’s stated objective for these attacks — imminent threat — isn't believable, and his real reason — regime incapacitation if not regime change — isn't likely. More downside than upside.”

“Without a wider, intelligence-driven plan for political transition, airstrikes alone are unlikely to generate sustained internal momentum against the Khamenei-IRGC leadership, particularly in the absence of an organized opposition ready to act. That could change quickly, as the leadership is widely blamed for the crisis, but the window is narrow, and Trump’s appetite for a prolonged conflict remains uncertain.”

“Buckle up — things are about to get bumpier in the Middle East. The war will have unpredictable ripple effects across the region in places like Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Israel, and Palestine. What happens inside of Iran won't stay there. The Islamic Republic of Iran's regime was at its weakest and most vulnerable point on the eve of this military action, and the main thing to watch for is how events unfold inside of Iran over the next few weeks.”

“US reliance on strike, rather than invasion, forces may reduce US casualties in Iran, but airpower alone has a poor track record of toppling governments or extracting significant concessions from adversaries.”

“Israel and the US are pursuing a longstanding goal of regime change in Iran. The coming days will show whether Tehran’s regime, institutionally built for resilience, can withstand the attacks.”

“This does not seem like previous military operations during Trumpʼs first or second term. This appears to be a war with an undefined duration and an unclear endgame. It appears to be a gamble that by using military force, more favorable dynamics will emerge — or at least that the Iranian regime can be badly weakened at an acceptable cost.”

“The Israeli leadership views the past 2.5 years as one ‘seven-front war.’ All fronts, they believe, feature foes backed by one actor: Iran — Hamas, Hizballah, the Houthis, Syrian and Iraqi militias, Iranian influence in the West Bank, and Iran itself. Israelis thus treat the current high-stakes campaign as taking this war to its core: the regime in Tehran.”

“The US achieved tactical surprise, and the timing was likely cued by sensitive intelligence information in order to be more successful in targeting Iranian leadership...The initial Iranian response that we are seeing, that has included targeting of US regional bases and infrastructure and Israel, was expected and likely scripted. However, now that the Iranian regime knows they are the direct target of this military action, further Iranian retaliation could become more desperate, less discriminate, and include attempts to close the Straits of Hormuz and Red Sea.”

“It's early for assessment and can change quickly, but so far it's not an energy infrastructure, transit or production war... The fact that Iran attacked its Gulf neighbors without cause raises the risk of energy and civilian targets being attacked across the region. Iran is making this a regional war. We will have to see how events evolve and the nature of damage to Iranian leadership before we can predict how escalation might proceed.”