After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the Gaza flare-up and its threat to Egyptian-led negotiations, Russian-hosted Afghan peace talks, the ground offensive in Hodeidah, and rapid escalation in northwestern Syria.
As naval, air, and ground units from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE conduct war games in western Egypt this month, many speculate that this could represent the birth of the so-called “Arab NATO.”
Yemen, the site of the biggest humanitarian disaster in the world today, has seen several significant developments in recent weeks, including renewed calls for a cease-fire, UN intervention, and brokered peace talks. Fatima Alasrar, senior analyst at the Arabia Foundation, and MEI’s Gerald Feierstein join host Paul Salem to discuss the prospects for these latest moves.
On November 5, the Trump administration re-imposed the full scope of U.S. sanctions on Iran, nearly six months after it unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The stringent sanctions target Iran’s energy, shipping and banking sectors and make it difficult, if not impossible, for foreign companies to continue to do business with the Islamic Republic. The Treasury Department reinstated all sanctions removed under the JCPOA, and blacklisted 300 new entities and individuals, in what the Treasury called it the “largest ever single-day action targeting the Iranian regime.”
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts discuss recent and upcoming events including the ongoing conflict in Yemen, the potential impact of the midterm elections on US Middle East policy, U.S.-Turkey rapprochement, escalating tensions in northern Syria, the upcoming Palermo conference on Libya, and the potential for political fallout in Pakistan and peace talks in Afghanistan.
Bahrain is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on Nov. 24, but the vote is unlikely to resolve the kingdom’s lingering political crisis.
In a recent video circulating on Iraqi social media, a man appears to be showing off rows of militiamen in the background as they conduct combat drills. He begins by giving an overhead view of several fighters of the Imam Ali Brigade, an Iranian-supported militia group within Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Force (PMF), marching in formation as they receive training. Before concluding the clip, he declares “Ila al-Yaman Insha’llah” (to Yemen, God willing).
Although the Trump administration has said it will issue temporary waivers to some major importers of Iranian oil, further declines in Iran’s exports are likely after sanctions come into effect on Nov. 4.
MEI’s Alex Vatanka and Jean-Francois Seznec join host Paul Salem to discuss the impact of incoming U.S. sanctions on Iranian energy exports on Iran’s economy, the Gulf, and energy markets in general.
The GCC aid package for Bahrain illustrates how massive capital flows underlie the contentious politics and strategic alliances within the Gulf and broader Middle East.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Marvin G. Weinbaum, and Charles Lister provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Iran’s decision to sell its oil in the private sector, the prime minister of Pakistan’s search for foreign aid, and the Syrian summit in Istanbul.
As the Khashoggi drama became to big to ignore, Egypt’s state-owned and private media coverage of the story confirmed that Egypt could not afford to harm its ties with Saudi Arabia.
October 25, 2018 – This week, in a highly anticipated speech on the Khashoggi affair, Turkish President Erdogan promised a lot but said little; the “Davos in the Desert” conference opened in Riyadh with an appearance by the Saudi crown prince; and the United States continued to send mixed signals. Karen Young, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, and Gonul Tol, director of MEI’s Turkey program, join host Paul Salem to discuss the latest developments.
In this episode, MEI’s Gerald Feierstein and Gonul Tol continue last week’s discussion on the tragedy and ongoing foreign relations crisis over Jamal Khashoggi, and Ahmad Majidyar gives a preview of this weekend’s parliamentary elections in Afghanistan.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
