The Coming Debate Over the US Military Presence in the Gulf
The war with Iran is hardly over, but the debate over the shape and nature of the post-conflict American posture in the Gulf region is just beginning. Undoubtedly, how the war ends will affect how the United States adjusts its role. While this debate is still in its early stages, something of a conventional wisdom is already developing in policy circles that could seriously compromise American influence in the Middle East.
Curb Your Enthusiasm: Why the Midterms Might Not Change Much in US Middle East Policy
With less than a week before the midterm elections in the United States, the spotlight is on the economy and cultural divides. US foreign policy remains mostly on the sidelines, but this year’s inconclusive Iran war and its effect on America’s economy have shaped the broader political environment in this electoral cycle.
The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War – From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: The Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict
Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution.
Iran considers its response to potential renewed US-Israeli strikes
The United States’ rapid military buildup across the Gulf has triggered a familiar anxiety in Tehran, but the Iranians’ reading of American intentions has grown sharper and more layered than at any point in recent years.
Board of Peace Meets as Storm Clouds Gather for Another Possible Middle East War
US President Donald Trump hosted an idiosyncratic gathering of global representatives in Washington on February 19 that included some key Middle East figures meeting under the banner of peace to discuss the next steps in Gaza just as the US was sending more military forces to the region to pressure and possibly target Iran.
China is becoming harder to ignore in the Middle East. Yet the gap between economic presence and strategic power remains wide, even as American policy swings, argues US academic John Calabrese.
February talks between Saudi Arabia and Turkey signaled the emergence of a pragmatic regional order grounded in economic complementarity, defense cooperation, and shared anxieties about instability.
Brian sits down with Holly Dagres, Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to discuss Iranian public opinion and protest movements. Dagres, who was born in Los Angeles and moved to Iran at age thirteen, offers a rare insider perspective on the views and aspirations of the Iranian people. The conversation explores the formative experiences of her teenage years in Iran, the roots of the country’s powerful women’s movements, the power of youth voices, and US policy toward Iran.
US Military Posture and Strike Options Against Iran
On January 14, as the Iranian regime brutally cracked down on the largest street protests the country had seen in years, US President Donald Trump urged Iranians to persevere, posting on social media “help is on its way.” At the time, however, limited US military resources in the theater constrained the president’s military options.
In the ensuing month since Trump’s post, the Pentagon has repositioned significant forces to the Middle East. This has led to wide speculation that the US is preparing for renewed strikes on Iran even as the Trump administration pursues diplomatic talks with the Iranian regime.
To better understand the military planning and force posture dynamics shaping US policy choices, this briefing featured two Distinguished Military Fellows, former commander of the 5th Fleet VADM Kevin Donegan, USN (Ret.), and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Mick Mulroy. MEI Senior Fellow Jason Campbell moderated the discussion.
The Abraham Accords have represented a remarkable shift in U.S. Middle East policy. They reframed Arab-Israeli normalization as a result of shared interests – within the Middle East and directly with the US, rather than as a byproduct of Israeli-Palestinian peace. Signed in September 2020, on the last leg of the first Trump administration, the Accords brokered by Washington normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, followed by framework agreements with Morocco and Sudan. From the American perspective, the Accords were intended to break decades of diplomatic stagnation in the Middle East in order to establish a regional framework aligned with American strategic objectives.
Whenever Iran is shaken by nationwide protests, as it was just last month, analysts and activists are consumed by the same two questions: will the country’s regime finally fall, and what will come next if it does? Answers abound.
From the Middle East to West Asia: Redefining America’s Global Strategy
MEI Senior Fellow Mohammed Soliman joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss his new book, West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East. The book argues that it is time for the United States to move decisively away from nation-building and focus instead on order-building, outlining a framework for a new regional order that links Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Soliman also shares how he conceived of the core ideas behind his book and explains why his thesis is especially relevant in today’s geopolitical, economic, and technological landscape.
Putting Trump on paper: What the new US strategy documents say about the Middle East
Trying to capture US President Donald Trump’s proudly unpredictable approach to foreign policy in fixed policy documents is inherently difficult. Surprise, leverage and improvisation are not bugs in Mr Trump’s world view; they are features. Yet the administration has now attempted this exercise twice: with the release of the National Security Strategy last December and the National Defence Strategy this January.
What Trump’s 2026 Mideast approach could look like
Donald Trump’s first year of his second presidential term has been a roller coaster of twists and turns both at home and abroad—particularly in the Middle East. His regional focus was driven by two main factors: first, Trump’s own ego and sense of possible place in history; and second, the volatile, dynamic events driven by actors in the region.
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