After decades of political setbacks, Iran’s former Revolutionary Guards commander has returned to the center of power. Is he an incidental beneficiary of war, or have observers underestimated him all along?
Gulf states and their partners are increasingly looking beyond their most immediate interests of containing the war with Iran. While recent talks between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Iran have kept de-escalation on the agenda, a broader regional security framework and non-aggression pact has also emerged, envisioning a longer-lasting solution to regional conflicts. The talks have yet to produce a settlement, but they reflect a growing recognition that Gulf security cannot depend entirely on Washington. Iran will still be there, and its neighbors will have to find ways of living with it.
Recent elections for the Israeli Knesset and American Congress may make less of a difference in the Middle East than some people think. Elections are significant indicators of national political trends, but do not always translate into changes in national security strategies. That is likely the case now in both nations.
Faleh al-Khazali, a leader of Iraqi militia group Kata’ib Sayyid Shuhada, has said that the governor of Kirkuk Province, Najmaldin Karim, is defying the law by staying in power and that Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi should take over his responsibilities.
Iran’s news defense minister has said that Tehran will work more closely with Baghdad to confront Iraqi Kurdish leaders who seek independence. “We consider the separatist movement in Iraq detrimental for the region and we will spare no efforts to preserve regional countries’ stability and territorial integrity,” Brigadier General Amir Hatami said on Tuesday.
In this week’s Monday Briefing, MEI experts Alex Vatanka, Randa Slim, Marvin G. Weinbaum, Yousef Munayyer, and Gerald Feierstein provide analysis on recent and upcoming events including Turkish President Erdogan’s visit to Iran, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s efforts to push for dialogue after the Kurdish independence referendum, the pending indictment of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan, signs of progress in the reconcilliation attempt between Hamas and Fatah, and the Saudi king’s visit to Moscow.
Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry has called on the Iranian government to stop recruiting and sending Afghan refugees to fight in Syria, Afghan media and BBC Persian report. Ahmad Shekaib Mostaghni, the ministry’s spokesman, raised particular concern about Afghan children deployed by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (I.R.G.C.) to the Syrian battlefield.
Turkey’s Chief of General Staff Hulusi Akar held talks with senior Iranian leaders in Tehran earlier today to discuss ways of boosting military cooperation between the two countries, the Iranian media reported.
An Iranian official said on Monday that Tehran has stopped 600 trucks carrying about 13,000 tons of fuel to enter Iraqi Kurdistan as part of a trade embargo on Erbil, Fars News Agency reported. Seyed Hamid Hosseini, the head of Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce, told reporters in Tehran that the decision was taken after Iraqi Kurdish leaders held an independence referendum a week ago despite opposition from Baghdad and Tehran.
A senior Iraqi delegation arrived in Tehran on Wednesday to coordinate “joint military efforts” between the two countries. According to the Iranian media reported, Lieutenant General Othman al-Ghanmi, the chief of staff of Iraqi Armed Forces, and his Iranian counterpart Major General Mohammad Bagheri discussed two key issues: joint counterterrorism measures along the two countries’ common frontier and how to respond to the Iraqi Kurdistan’s push for independence.
Iran’s Navy Commander Habibollah Sayyari said today that the country’s naval forces will unveil its new domestically-built naval assets this year and will also extend their area and scope of operations beyond the Persian Gulf region.
A spokesman of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.) has said that the paramilitary forces will “not rush to a civil war sought by” Iraqi Kurdistan’s President Masoud Barzani, but cautioned that P.M.F.
President Hassan Rouhani continues to insist that the 2015 nuclear deal is safe, despite very vocal agitation from the Trump White House. The Trump administration’s September 14 decision to continue to waive sanctions on Iran’s oil and gas industries—as is required by the nuclear deal as long as Tehran is compliant with its obligations—also points to the deal’s strong likelihood for survival in the foreseeable future.
The U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee passed two bills today that tighten sanctions on Hezbollah. The bills amend sections of the Hezbollah International Financing Act of 2015. The first bill imposes sanctions on any foreign person that assists a number of key Hezbollah financial, security, foreign relations, and media institutions. The second bill imposes sanctions on persons responsible for use of people as human shields in the 2006 war or thereafter, and names Hezbollah senior leadership among those intended.
Iranian-aligned Iraqi militant leaders continue to threaten violence against the Kurdish Regional Government (K.R.G.) over the independence vote on Monday. “Kurdistan’s referendum has no value and the resistance will take a series of measures to respond,” said Jafar al-Husseini, the spokesman of the Hezbollah Brigades, an Iranian-sponsored militia group within the Popular Mobilization Forces (P.M.F.). “Officials in Kurdistan are American tools in Iraq and the region.
Local officials in western Afghanistan say Iran and Pakistan continue to assist Taliban fighters to destabilize the region. “Pakistan and Iran support the Taliban. Residents have seen Pakistani and Iranian clerics bringing money to Taliban in Shindand [District,” alleged Abdul Ghani Noori, the head of Zer Koh District of Herat Province, bordering Iran. He claimed that between 200 and 400 Taliban militants are present in the district and called on Afghan security forces to launch an “extensive operation” against terrorists in the area.
Iranian authorities have stepped up security measures in Kurdish regions in the northwest since Iraqi Kurdistan held an independence vote on Monday, the BBC Persian reports. The government has suspended or slowed access to the internet in some western regions, including in Kurdistan Province, which borders Iraqi Kurdistan. Video footages show that the government has dispatched armed forces and riot police as well as tanks and armed vehicles to Kurdish areas.
The oldest peer-reviewed publication dedicated to the study of the modern Middle East, MEI’s flagship journal covers politics, society, and culture in the region.
